More Polls

There's been so much movement in the polls for the past few days that it probably makes sense to take a snapshot of where things stand right now.

First there was the debate. The undecideds, and other persuadables, did not agree with me that the debate was a draw: they gave a clear advantage to Obama. I will not argue with their judgment.

On top of that there was McCain's pathetic performance in the bailout. Everyone but Faux News saw through his charade of "suspending" his campaign, and then he claimed "credit" for getting the bailout passed -- just hours before it went down in flames.

And on top of that there was Sarah. Ah, Sarah. Sarah, who put McCain ahead in the polls for eight terrifying days. They thought it would last 'til November.

So let's take a look at national polls:

The NY Times/CBS national poll was released today, showing Obama in the lead, 49%-40%. Imagine that. Interesting internals include an unfavorable rating for McCain of 42% -- "as high as it has been since CBS News and The Times began asking the question about Mr. McCain in 1999, the first time he ran for president."

The Gallup 3-day tracking poll has it Obama 48%, McCain 44%, with McCain apparently closing in the past few days:



The Rasmussen 3-day tracking poll shows it for Obama 51%-45%. "This is the sixth straight day that Obama has been at 50% or 51%, the sixth straight day that McCain has been at 44% or 45%, and the sixth straight day the Obama has enjoyed a five or six point lead."

The Research 2000 3-day tracking poll shows it for Obama 51%-41%. I would have called it an outlier until I saw the NY Times/CBS poll, above.

Then there are some really interesting state polls. The big battleground states are Florida, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, and Virginia.

CNN is showing Obama ahead in Florida, 51%-47%, and in Virginia, 53%-44%.

In Pennsylvania, the Muhlenberg poll is showing Obama ahead, 48%-41%. The Franklin and Marshall poll is showing Obama ahead, 48%-43%. A third poll out today, the Quinnipiac, is showing Obama ahead, 54%-39%.

The Quinnipiac University poll of Ohio, released today, has Obama ahead, 50%-42%.

In Michigan, there were a number of polls conducted in September, most of which showed Obama in the lead.

So. Things are looking pretty good for Barack. But is it in the bag?

Nooooooooooooooooo.

Talking Points Memo describes an interesting interview with the AFL-CIO deputy political director today. If you're a junkie, you should read it. But if you're junkie enough that you've read this far, I'll give you the gist:

"This election remains extremely volatile in the battlegrounds," Podhorzer told us. "The public polls are giving a false sense of precision about where the race is. That's a story that's not really being told."

Strikingly, Podhorzer said that his union's internal polls -- which push voters hard on the question of whether people are really firmly committed to their pick -- show that as many as "15 to 20 percent" of battleground state voters remain "persuadable," as he put it, despite what public polls say about the level of undecided voters.

Expect heavy advertising from McCain to reach those persuadables.