The Last Debate

Well, what do you think? Is there a winner? We'll get an indication in the next few hours, when the snap polls come in. But the real test, as in the first two, will be how the major polling goes.

I thought McCain had some strong moments, or moments that will come across as strong. McCain looked like he was going to pop on several occasions, and his bouncing around was not attractive. One of the talking heads (David Brooks?) said he wasn't sure he'd want to see that for the next four years. McCain also had moments of incoherence. What was that stuff about different caps all about?

Obama seemed to stay cool for most of it, but I do think he was kind of rattled by the end -- maybe from debating a wild man. His answers were clear and organized, and reflected his clear and organized thinking.

The things people will remember, though, are Joe the Plumber and "If you wanted to run against George Bush, you should have run 4 years ago." And because of that, I give the advantage to McCain.

Set me straight in remarks.

Another thought: One's reaction to the debate may have a lot to do with the network one watched it on. Talking Points Memo quotes David Gergen as saying watching McCain on the split screens was "almost like [seeing] an exercise in anger management." I watched on PBS, which did not use a split screen. You saw only the person who was talking.

Update: CNN's insta-poll says Obama won the debate 58%-31%. CBS's poll of uncommitted voters says Obama won 53%-22%. That's a 27-point spread, and a 31-point spread. I'm amazed. Let's see if that holds up over the next few days. (Please, please, please.)

Another update:

Politico did a poll, too, and showed the debate being much closer: 49%-46% for Obama.

And another:

Meanwhile, virtually the entire Frank Luntz focus group on Fox News, which was staged tonight in Miami, said that Barack Obama won the debate. Luntz termed it a "clear majority," but not one person raised their hand when asked if they thought McCain won.

Said Luntz: "None had made a decision to support Sen. Obama before the debate, but more than half supported him after the debate. It was a good night for Barack Obama."