Saturday, September 20, 2008

Our Current Troubles


I'm properly worried about things financial. Right now I'm putting trust in Secretary Paulson mostly because I don't see any alternative on the horizon. As Bernanke and Paulson reportedly explained it to members of Congress, it's either give them unlimited authority to spend $700 billion or the whole economic system will collapse.

Like we have $700 billion.

The budget deficit for fiscal year 2009 is projected to be $482 billion. Giving this kind of additional spending authority will require raising the national debt ceiling to $11.3 trillion! As Peter Goodman writes, "Some question the prudence of adding to the nation’s overall debt at a time when the Treasury relies on the largess of foreigners to cover the bills."

Talking Points Memo is publishing some interesting, contrarian views from some of its readers. I think they raise interesting points worth having the answers to.

While the Resolution Trust Corporation was a moderately well regarded solution to the 80's S&L scandal, this proposed idea does not, and almost certainly will not be similar, though its proponents will claim it is. The RTC took over failed banks and sold off the banks' assets. Very simple. It was simply an enormous bankruptcy trustee.

The crucial difference here is that this bailout will not be taking over failed banks, just taking over the bad debts of the failed banks. So the banks will be able to live on and be free to do the exact same thing all over again. I cannot think of a worse philosophical, policy, or practical solution than this.

You have banks and investment houses that lobbied Congress to remove restrictions on their activities and now their own activities have loaded them down with the crushing weight of bad debt from which they all profited handsomely before they got stuck holding the pile of s**t. ...

If we are going to subsidize taking over these bad debts, then we should be taking over the entire banks and liquidating them. Period.

And a political sentiment I sympathize with regardless of how this is decided:

Is it just me? With this last enormous bail out of our Wall Street Investors/Corporate America, I have this picture in my mind of these cartoon Republicans sweeping out the last of the people's money from the vaults. It took eight years, but they managed to get it all. The War/Private Contractors, the Oil Companys, the deregulation and fleecing of America. These Republicans started their tour of duty eight years ago with the coffers overflowing, flush with cash.

Finally, the NY Times' Paul Krugman writes:

No deal

I hate to say this, but looking at the plan as leaked, I have to say no deal. Not unless Treasury explains, very clearly, why this is supposed to work, other than through having taxpayers pay premium prices for lousy assets.

As I posted earlier today, it seems all too likely that a “fair price” for mortgage-related assets will still leave much of the financial sector in trouble. And there’s nothing at all in the draft that says what happens next; although I do notice that there’s nothing in the plan requiring Treasury to pay a fair market price. So is the plan to pay premium prices to the most troubled institutions? Or is the hope that restoring liquidity will magically make the problem go away?

Here’s the thing: historically, financial system rescues have involved seizing the troubled institutions and guaranteeing their debts; only after that did the government try to repackage and sell their assets. The feds took over S&Ls first, protecting their depositors, then transferred their bad assets to the RTC. The Swedes took over troubled banks, again protecting their depositors, before transferring their assets to their equivalent institutions.

The Treasury plan, by contrast, looks like an attempt to restore confidence in the financial system — that is, convince creditors of troubled institutions that everything’s OK — simply by buying assets off these institutions. This will only work if the prices Treasury pays are much higher than current market prices; that, in turn, can only be true either if this is mainly a liquidity problem — which seems doubtful — or if Treasury is going to be paying a huge premium, in effect throwing taxpayers’ money at the financial world.

And there’s no quid pro quo here — nothing that gives taxpayers a stake in the upside, nothing that ensures that the money is used to stabilize the system rather than reward the undeserving.

I hope I’m wrong about this. But let me say it again: Treasury needs to explain why this is supposed to work — not try to panic Congress into giving it a blank check. Otherwise, no deal.

We all need to stay tuned to this debate.


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