But don't get complacent, either.
These are the RealClearPolitics (RCP) polling averages of the nine states Politico thinks are swing states, where the election will be won or lost.
| RCP Poll Average | Electoral Votes | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| States | Obama | Romney | Obama | Romney | ||||
| Colo. | 48.3% | 46.0% | 9 | 0 | ||||
| Fla. | 48.8% | 46.3% | 29 | 0 | ||||
| Iowa | 48.3% | 44.3% | 6 | 0 | ||||
| Nev. | 49.0% | 44.8% | 6 | 0 | ||||
| N.H. | 46.0% | 45.0% | 4 | 0 | ||||
| N.C. | 47.8% | 46.8% | 15 | 0 | ||||
| Ohio | 48.7% | 44.3% | 18 | 0 | ||||
| Va. | 49.6% | 45.1% | 13 | 0 | ||||
| Wis. | 51.5% | 43.7% | 10 | 0 | ||||
| Swing-State Votes | 110 | 0 | ||||||
| Leaning/Likely State Votes | 237 | 191 | ||||||
| Total Overall Votes | 347 | 191 | ||||||
There are many reasons to be wary of this. Scariest to me is that many of these are states where the Republicans have conducted successful voter suppression activities. We face the prospect, on election day, of tens of thousands of voters being turned away at the polls. That could make a significant difference.
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