Peak Oil

There's an interesting op-ed in the Times this morning about Peak Oil, the theory that there is a finite amount of oil in the ground, that we're just about done pumping the stuff that's easy to get at, and that oil production will inevitably start declining, starting in [insert date here]. It's a provocative piece, attempting to debunk three of the observations made by Peak Oil proponents.

I can't say it's particularly convincing, even if the author, Michael Lynch, is right on all three points. For instance, on the issue of whether the easy oil is gone, he says:

A related argument — that the “easy oil” is gone and that extraction can only become more difficult and cost-ineffective — should be recognized as vague and irrelevant. Drillers in Persia a century ago certainly didn’t consider their work easy, and the mechanized, computerized industry of today is a far sight from 19th-century mule-drawn rigs. Hundreds of fields that produce “easy oil” today were once thought technologically unreachable.

And that's all he has to say about that. Sorry, but that's at least as vague and irrelevant as the argument it attempts to rebut.

But let's grant him the point on all three of his arguments. Let's say that for all practical purposes there is an unlimited supply of reachable oil in the world, that there's no reason at all to be concerned about the fact that nearly all that oil is somewhere besides America, and that the reason we shouldn't be alarmed that the rate of use exceeds the rate of discovery is a mystery known only to manly oil men.

So what?

The Peak Oil issue is a concern, but it is just part of a much larger concern: man-made climate change. The overwhelming weight of scientific opinion is that our use of fossil fuels is leading us to disaster. Mr. Lynch doesn't talk about that, although he does endorse alternate energy – at the same time he dismisses it:

This is not to say that we shouldn’t keep looking for other cost-effective, low-pollution energy sources — why not broaden our options? But we can’t let the false threat of disappearing oil lead the government to throw money away on harebrained renewable energy schemes or impose unnecessary and expensive conservation measures on a public already struggling through tough economic times.

Uh, Mr. Lynch, the issue is bigger than Peak Oil.

Update: And while Mr. Lynch is trying to divert our attention, China Racing Ahead of U.S. in Drive to Go Solar.