Tuesday, September 25, 2012

David Brooks' Conservative Mind


My love/hate relationship with David Brooks continues. I was amazed at this morning's column, The Conservative Mind, in which he identifies the two strains of conservative thought:

The Economic Conservative –
These were people that anybody following contemporary Republican politics would be familiar with. They spent a lot of time worrying about the way government intrudes upon economic liberty. They upheld freedom as their highest political value. They admired risk-takers. They worried that excessive government would create a sclerotic nation with a dependent populace.
The Traditional Conservative –
[I]ntellectual heir to Edmund Burke, Russell Kirk, Clinton Rossiter and Catholic social teaching. This sort of conservative didn’t see society as a battleground between government and the private sector. Instead, the traditionalist wanted to preserve a society that functioned as a harmonious ecosystem, in which the different layers were nestled upon each other: individual, family, company, neighborhood, religion, city government and national government.
Because they were conservative, they tended to believe that power should be devolved down to the lower levels of this chain. They believed that people should lead disciplined, orderly lives, but doubted that individuals have the ability to do this alone, unaided by social custom and by God. So they were intensely interested in creating the sort of social, economic and political order that would encourage people to work hard, finish school and postpone childbearing until marriage.
[snip]

This conservative believes in prudence on the grounds that society is complicated and it’s generally best to reform it steadily but cautiously. Providence moves slowly but the devil hurries.
[snip]
In the polarized political conflict with liberalism, shrinking government has become the organizing conservative principle. Economic conservatives have the money and the institutions. They have taken control. Traditional conservatism has gone into eclipse. These days, speakers at Republican gatherings almost always use the language of market conservatism — getting government off our backs, enhancing economic freedom. Even Mitt Romney, who subscribes to a faith that knows a lot about social capital, relies exclusively on the language of market conservatism. 

It’s not so much that today’s Republican politicians reject traditional, one-nation conservatism. They don’t even know it exists. There are few people on the conservative side who’d be willing to raise taxes on the affluent to fund mobility programs for the working class. There are very few willing to use government to actively intervene in chaotic neighborhoods, even when 40 percent of American kids are born out of wedlock. There are very few Republicans who protest against a House Republican budget proposal that cuts domestic discretionary spending to absurdly low levels.

The results have been unfortunate.
Read the whole thing here.

And don't miss the three part response of reader Dave Scott of Cornwall Bridge, Conn., which begins:
Traditional conservatism is impossible these days because of technological change. Traditional conservatism assumes that the basic parameters of life do not quickly change, and this is just not true. The Internet is a huge change in the basic parameters of life, and may be as big a change as literacy in our social nature. These huge changes have been coming fast the last century. Antibiotics, atomic bombs, movies, radio, television, automobiles, computers, passenger jets, cell phones, the Internet, space flight -- technologically, a continuing avalanche of change.

In such an environment, traditional conservatism is utterly detached from reality. We have no customs for twitter except by analogy, and if analogy is allowed clever people can justify anything. Traditional conservatism might be very good at creating rules for the new realities, but it will refuse to do so because it is traditionally conservative and does not like new things.

Our reality changes rapidly and we are going to have to create new rules. Conservatives are just going to have to accept this.
Without government regulation, the free market self-destructs. Somebody wins, and competition doesnt happen any more. Or a small group win and cooperate with each other, like OPEC. Or they kill the goose that lays the golden egg, like overfishing codfish. Or scams proliferate and huge resources are devoted to scamming and not being scammed. Or contracts are enforced only for those who pay more than those on the other side.
and ends:
The traditional conservatives now belong in the Democratic party. Mr. Brooks is becoming -- is perhaps already -- a closet Democrat, albeit a conservative one. The country lacks decisive leadership and needs it, so Mr. Brooks can set an example and inspire others by coming out of the closet. Or he can continue to stay in the closet and illustrate one of our biggest problem[s].
 Interesting stuff.

Sunday, September 23, 2012

Memories

Was it only a year ago?  Jay Root reminds us of the fun we had when Texas Governor Rick Perry was front runner for the GOP nomination. From the September 22, 2011 debate:
“I think Americans just don’t know sometimes which Mitt Romney they’re dealing with. Is it the Mitt Romney that was on the side of against the Second Amendment before he was for the Second Amendment? Was it before he was before the social programs from the standpoint of he was for standing up for Roe v. Wade before he was against Roe v. Wade — he was for Race to the Top — he’s for Obamacare and now he’s against it — I mean we’ll wait until tomorrow and see which Mitt Romney we’re really talking to tonight.”
Root attributes it to sleep apnea. I'm not convinced. I think he was channeling Sarah Palin.

Saturday, September 22, 2012

An Appeal to "Persons of Faith"


Okay, this is a campaign commercial, so bring to it as much cynicism as you think that warrants. And it's directed at what's being called "persons of faith." So add as much cynicism as you think that warrants.

And I'm a pretty cynical person. But I liked this commercial.

Here's why:

1) Too many people think "morality" refers exclusively to sexuality. It's a much bigger idea than that, and this commercial acknowledges that.

2) It addresses (obliquely) the American Roman Catholic bishops' "religious freedom" canard, which is simply an attempt to change the subject from their own irresponsible, immoral behavior.




Friday, September 21, 2012

Special people


There was an interesting contrast in the editorial section of the NY Times today. Paul Krugman and David Brooks talked about the same thing, but from their own perspectives.

Krugman:
...[T]he fact is that the modern Republican Party just doesn’t have much respect for people who work for other people, no matter how faithfully and well they do their jobs. All the party’s affection is reserved for “job creators,” a k a employers and investors. Leading figures in the party find it hard even to pretend to have any regard for ordinary working families — who, it goes without saying, make up the vast majority of Americans.

Am I exaggerating? Consider the Twitter message sent out by Eric Cantor, the Republican House majority leader, on Labor Day — a holiday that specifically celebrates America’s workers. Here’s what it said, in its entirety: “Today, we celebrate those who have taken a risk, worked hard, built a business and earned their own success.” Yes, on a day set aside to honor workers, all Mr. Cantor could bring himself to do was praise their bosses. 

[snip]

The G.O.P.’s disdain for workers goes deeper than rhetoric. It’s deeply embedded in the party’s policy priorities. Mr. Romney’s remarks spoke to a widespread belief on the right that taxes on working Americans are, if anything, too low. Indeed, The Wall Street Journal famously described low-income workers whose wages fall below the income-tax threshold as “lucky duckies.”

What really needs cutting, the right believes, are taxes on corporate profits, capital gains, dividends, and very high salaries — that is, taxes that fall on investors and executives, not ordinary workers. This despite the fact that people who derive their income from investments, not wages — people like, say, Willard Mitt Romney — already pay remarkably little in taxes. 

Where does this disdain for workers come from? Some of it, obviously, reflects the influence of money in politics: big-money donors, like the ones Mr. Romney was speaking to when he went off on half the nation, don’t live paycheck to paycheck. But it also reflects the extent to which the G.O.P. has been taken over by an Ayn Rand-type vision of society, in which a handful of heroic businessmen are responsible for all economic good, while the rest of us are just along for the ride.
 The whole thing is here.

Brooks:
I guess we’re all supposed to be talking about how to build the middle class these days and look askance at the top 1 percent. But would you mind if I interrupted this cultural moment to point out that capitalism is an inherently elitist enterprise?

Prosperity is often driven by small enclaves of extraordinary individuals that build new industries and amass large fortunes. These driven, manic individuals are frequently unpleasant to be around. But, if your country is not attracting and nurturing them, you’re cooked.
He talks about an interesting 'job creator" [my choice of words] named Elon Musk, and concludes:
Today, grandiosity is out of style. We’ve just been through a financial crisis fueled by people who got too big for their britches. We’ve got an online and media culture that specializes in ridiculing grand people.

[snip]

But, if growth is ever going to rebound, the U.S. will need a grandiosity rebound and the policies that encourage rich people with brass: immigration policies that attract people like Musk, tax rates that encourage risk and government policies that boost them along (SpaceX has benefited greatly from NASA, and Tesla received a big government loan).
Most of all, there has to be a culture that gives two cheers to grandiosity. Government can influence growth, but it’s people like Musk who create it.
The whole thing is here.

I disagree with neither.

It's a Problem, All Right


Australia's deputy prime minister, Wayne Swan:
"Let's be blunt and acknowledge the biggest threat to the world's biggest economy are the cranks and crazies that have taken over the Republican Party."

Thursday, September 20, 2012

Yeah, I Guess This is True


Kevin Drum on Obama's 1998 "redistribution" video:
I don't really blame Republicans for desperately trying to change the subject after the release of the secret Romney fundraising video, but it cracks me up that they're trying to make hay out of this 1998 statement from Obama:
I think the trick is figuring out how do we structure government systems that pool resources and hence facilitate some redistribution because I actually believe in redistribution, at least at a certain level to make sure that everybody's got a shot. How do we pool resources at the same time as we decentralize delivery systems in ways that both foster competition, can work in the marketplace, and can foster innovation at the local level and can be tailored to particular communities.
It's not just that this is 14 years old. It's not just that Obama extols competition, the marketplace, and innovation. It's the fact that this is basically buzzword central. I mean, this is a guy who's obviously trying to make it sound like he has some kind of actual governing philosophy, and tossing in every piece of MBA-speak he can think of to hide the fact that he's saying nothing. If he had immediately followed this up with a reading of "Jabberwocky" I wouldn't have been surprised.

And this is supposed to be the evidence that Obama is some kind of radical socialist who hates the free market? Sure. In reality, it's evidence that he was spending a little much time back then in the pop business aisle at Barnes & Noble.
I have to admit, I found it hard to find anything concrete in the statement.

Stewart on Fox on Romney!


Jon Stewart again! This was too good to die in just one news cycle. Here, he covers Fox News' coverage of the Romney video. He calls it: Chaos on Bulls--t Mountain.



Colbert's latest is here.

Wednesday, September 19, 2012

Very Funny


Don't miss Gail Collins:
Our topic for today is: When Bad Things Happen to Mitt Romney.

Really, it’s been the worst run of disasters this side of the Mayan calendar. The Republicans’ woes started last Friday, when Ann and Mitt filmed a TV interview in which they entertained the kind of personal questions that most candidates learned to avoid after Bill Clinton did that boxers-versus-briefs thing. Asked what he wears to bed, Mitt said: “I think the best answer is: as little as possible.”

Euww.
 The rest is here.

Easiest Call I've Made All Year


What Obama said:
“[T]he trick is figuring out how do we structure government systems that pool resources and hence facilitate some redistribution because I actually believe in redistribution, at least at a certain level to make sure everybody’s got a shot.”
Sempringham, earlier today:
It's fair to expect, given their history so far in this campaign, that the phrase "at least at a certain level to make sure everybody's got a shot," will be deleted when the video makes its appearance in campaign ads.
Romney campaign, this afternoon (you'll need to click on it to make it readable):


George Romney Was in the 47%


This is not one of Jon Stewart's best, but it's funny enough. The really interesting thing, though, is the revelation (to me, anyway) that Governor Mitt Romney's dad, Governor George Romney, was once on public aid.


Oh, this is such fun!

Colbert Has Some Fun




This is such fun!

Redistribution


Governor Romney has less than seven weeks to convince the undecideds that he's their man, and he's up to his waist in his own, uh, poo. So what should he do?

This morning Matt Rhoades, his campaign manager, released a memorandum describing a "newly-unearthed set of remarks [where] we can hear Barack Obama in his own words advocating for government as a means to redistribute wealth."

Here's what Rhoades thinks is the money quote. Obama says:
“[T]he trick is figuring out how do we structure government systems that pool resources and hence facilitate some redistribution because I actually believe in redistribution, at least at a certain level to make sure everybody’s got a shot.”
What makes this quote so appealing to Rhoades and the Romney campaign is the word "redistribution." Years ago redistribution was a benign term used by tax policy wonks to describe what tax policy is, and how different tax policies work. Because taxes are, by definition, "redistribution." I have no children, but for most of my life I have paid taxes to support public schools. I pay them still. My income is being redistributed! (Yawn.)

But these days the word "redistribution" is a red flag to people on the extreme right. There are the libertarians, the perpetual adolescents, who say what's theirs is theirs, and any attempt to get them to participate in a "greater good" is tyranny. And there are the Romneys, who apparently see the 47 percent who pay no income taxes as freeloaders in an "entitlement society," envious of the Romney's riches but unwilling to get off their duffs to earn their own. And it's just a small step from there to even uglier Tea Party descriptions.

One conclusion some of those people on the right are making, if you haven't noticed, is that we should not fund public schools. That's how far this goes.

It's fair to expect, given their history so far in this campaign, that the phrase "at least at a certain level to make sure everybody's got a shot," will be deleted when the video makes its appearance in campaign ads. What we'll see is a black man saying the phrase "I actually believe in redistribution." Or wait, did he say "Reparations"?

Will it change anybody's mind? I don't think so. I think everybody who wets their pants every time they hear the word "redistribution" is already firmly in the Romney camp. Will it make a difference in the election? It might fire up the extreme right wing, who have been cool toward Romney up until now. But they hate Obama so much, I don't think they'd miss an opportunity to vote against him, anyway.

We'll see.

Tuesday, September 18, 2012

Statistics, Sometimes Weird


In the week from September 11-September 18, Sempringham had 164 pageviews from the United States, and 104 from Russia. (Sorry, don't have a clue!) Additional pageviews were from the UK, Germany, France, Philippines, China, Malaysia, Poland, and Ukraine.

In the same week, the most popular operating system of Sempringham viewers was Microsoft Windows (54%), followed by Linux (26% - those Russians?), followed by Macintosh (10%), iPad (7%), Android and iPod (less than 1% each).

In the same week, the most popular browser software of Sempringham viewers was Firefox (55%), Internet Explorer (29%), Safari (9%), Chrome (5%), Opera, and Mobile Safari (less than 1% each).

Google search keywords that resulted in a Sempringham pageview include, but are not restricted to,  "prostitutes," "hard art groop," and "fox news lies."


The Gift That Keeps Giving


The Washington Post has more information about the host of the fund-raiser where Romney called 47% of Americans deadbeats:
The reported host of a private $50,000-a-plate fundraiser that has come to haunt Mitt Romney this week is a prominent Florida private equity manager who has attracted media attention for partying with the rich and famous.

[Marc J.] Leder, who has given nearly $300,000 to Romney and other Republicans this cycle, used part of his fortune to become a co-owner of the Philadelphia 76ers basketball team and has become a fixture of New York tabloid reports, hobnobbing with rap mogul Russell Simmons and other celebrities. The New York Post dubbed him a “private equity party boy.”
In August 2011, the same tabloid reported on a Hamptons bacchanal at a $500,000-a-night oceanfront mansion rented by Leder, “where guests cavorted nude in the pool and performed sex acts, scantily dressed Russians danced on platforms and men twirled lit torches to a booming techno beat.” [my emphasis]
Ladies and gentlemen, I give you Mitt Romney's meritocracy.

As Paul Krugman says, "Clearly, we’re living in a bad political novel written by some kind of liberal. I mean, things like this don’t happen in real life."

Oh, this is such fun!

Non-filers


The Tax Foundation prepared a pretty map that can help us get a fix on where the 47 percent who pay no income tax live.

The red states are the 10 states with the highest percentage of non-payers; the blue states are the 10 with the lowest percentage of non-payers.


 Mitt says,
"These are people who pay no income tax... my job is not to worry about those people. I’ll never convince them they should take personal responsibility and care for their lives."
I strongly object to Mitt Romney calling Southerners a bunch of moochers.

Oh, this is such fun!


Romney's 47%


Talking Points Memo points us to the following graph from the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities:


It should be pointed out, I think, that in most states the 30% of 47% who don't pay payroll taxes DO pay sales taxes (as do the other 70% of 47%). I'll bet some pay property taxes, too.

Arch-conservative William Kristol in the arch-conservative Weekly Standard:  "Romney seems to have contempt not just for the Democrats who oppose him, but for tens of millions who intend to vote for him."

But Was It True?


Here's what Romney said in the video (see prior post):
“There are 47 percent of the people who will vote for the president no matter what. All right, there are 47 percent who are with him, who are dependent upon government, who believe that they are victims, who believe the government has a responsibility to care for them, who believe that they are entitled to health care, to food, to housing, to you-name-it. That that’s an entitlement. And the government should give it to them. And they will vote for this president no matter what…These are people who pay no income tax... my job is not to worry about those people. I’ll never convince them they should take personal responsibility and care for their lives…. The president has been a disappointment. He told you he’d keep unemployment below 8 percent. Hasn’t been below eight percent since. Fifty percent of kids coming out of school can’t get a job. Fifty percent.”
Here's what the Washington Post's Fact Checker says about it:
First, let’s start with the notion that nearly half of Americans do not pay income tax. This is one of these “facts” that is not very informative. “Income taxes” are just one type of tax that people pay, and for most working Americans, payroll taxes for Social Security and Medicare far exceed what they pay in income taxes. Moreover, if some people do not pay income taxes, it is because of policies often advocated by Republicans.
Some 44 percent of those who do not pay income taxes are because they benefit from tax benefits aimed at the elderly, while another 30 percent benefit from tax credits for children or for the working poor, according to a paper published by the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center.
But not all of these people are automatically Obama supporters. In fact, according to a map published by the Tax Foundation, eight of the top ten states with the lowest income-tax liability are the heart of Romney country — the deep south. The only exceptions are Florida, a battleground state, and New Mexico, which leans toward Obama. Meanwhile, most of the states with the lowest level of nonpayers are Obama states. [my emphasis]
[clip]
As for the claim that Obama promised that unemployment would be below 8 percent, Romney has already earned Two Pinocchios for that. 
So, you'd think that Mitt would be in trouble with his base for insulting them like that. But no. When his base hears him talk like that, they know who he's really talking about.

Monday, September 17, 2012

What Mitt Says in Private


Videos of Mitt talking to the converted are starting to their way to the internet. First, there's this video of Mitt saying that Obama's supporters are all on the dole:



More to come.

Update: Mitt has held a press conference about this video, and he had not thought out what he had to say, so it just made things worse.

This is Romney's crash and burn event. The gift for Obama that keeps on giving.

"Do you get a Social Security check that you worked hard all your life to get? Well, Mitt Romney thinks you're a moocher!"

"Do you have Medicare? If you do, Mitt Romney thinks you're a moocher!"

The Patriot Game


Play The Patriot Game – a musical mash-up of the conventions.

Saturday, September 15, 2012

Murder One


A week ago I had the "opportunity" to serve on a criminal jury trial. The charge was first degree murder.

The defendant was 18 years old at the time of the murder in 2009. The victim was 17.

If you're interested, the following is how the trial went. I'm including some links to news stories about the murder. I did not know about these until after the trial was over because I made no attempt to learn anything other than what was presented in court. Wasn't that good of me?

I was called for jury duty at the criminal court building at 26th and California. When you say "26th and California" to a Chicagoan, it sends a chill down their spine. I’ve been called for jury duty about five times before, though always at the civil court downtown. There's definitely a different group of people hanging around the streets and halls at 26th and California.

TUESDAY

When I entered the jury waiting room I was given a slip of paper that said Group 4, then sat down with about 300 other prospective jurors. We sat for two hours,  waiting and watching a video by the chief judge telling us how cool and patriotic we were to be on jury duty. I had just texted my significant other that nothing was happening, and that I hoped I hadn’t jinxed anything, when Groups 4 and 32 were called.

We were escorted from the waiting room to courtroom 604. There the judge, William Lacy, advised us that we were there for a murder trial, and called 28 of us (of about 50) by name to sit in the jury box and in chairs lined up in front of the jury box. Each of the attorneys and the defendant identified themselves to the jury, then the judge reviewed the forms we had filled out in preparation for jury duty, and basically asked us each question on the form, but in greater detail. Had you ever "been indicted" apparently meant “have you ever had a traffic ticket?”

After the judge’s questions, the State’s Attorney and defense attorney asked us questions. The States Attorney asked two questions. I can’t remember the first, but the second was: “What did you bring with you to read today?” Some people brought puzzle books, some brought newspapers, some brought novels. I had a history of World War I.

I believe it was the defense attorney who asked something about whether, if the defendant did not testify, we would take this as evidence of guilt.  Nobody said they would, but two individuals said they would take the police’s word over anyone else’s, regardless of what other evidence showed. Two Hispanic women could not understand the questions that were being asked, because they barely spoke English.

The judge, States Attorney, and defense attorney then retired to the judge’s chambers, and we were all told to wait in the hall. After a while, a sheriff’s deputy came out and called my name. She took me back to the judge’s chambers, where the judge said I had a very common name, and asked if I had ever lived in New York. I said I had lived there in 1971 for a few months. He asked if I had ever been in trouble with the law there, and I said no. I was then sent back out to the hall.

After a while we were called back into the courtroom, and 12 names were read out, including mine. We took places in the jury box, were told we were the lucky ones, then sent back to the jury deliberation room. Out in the courtroom, they were selecting another two jurors as alternates, and they ultimately joined us.

We were 6 women, 8 men, two black, ten white, and zero Hispanics.

WEDNESDAY

The trial began. We heard opening statements from the prosecution and the defense. The defendant chased down the victim on the street, the prosecution said, firing repeatedly. Then, when the victim fell, the defendant stood over him and fired a bullet into his head. A news story about the case is here. This was a typical gang-type shooting that we read about in the Chicago papers every day.

The defense attorney stood up and said the prosecution did not have sufficient believable evidence to prove their case, and they could not, because the defendant was not guilty of the crime.

The prosecution presented several witnesses who had seen the murder, which occurred in front of a corner store. The man who was closest claimed he had seen nothing because he pressed himself up against a delivery truck. A second man had apparently identified the shooter to police from a photo the evening of the shooting, but during the trial claimed he had indicated only that the person in the picture “looked familiar.”

Two other persons were eyewitnesses to the murder, however, and identified the defendant as the shooter. Another person had seen the defendant exchanging guns with a companion shortly after the murder.

THURSDAY

The trial continued.

The prosecution presented two young women (in their 20’s) who told a story about how, at a time shortly after the shooting, they observed the defendant and a second person going first to the second person’s house, a few houses down the street, then the defendant came over and asked for a ride out of the area, saying someone had tried to shoot him. One woman testified that she had seen the defendant bent over beside the house, like he was throwing up, and that the crotch of his pants was wet. They gave him a ride out of the area, during which he borrowed one woman's phone and made several calls. They could not hear what was said. One woman testified that the defendant called her several days later and warned her not to use his name if the police talked to her.

You can find a video that includes the defendant here.

After the women’s testimony, the prosecution presented witnesses from the crime lab and police department. There were no fingerprints on any of the shell casings. All shell casings were fired by the same gun, and all bullets were fired by the same gun, but since the gun was not recovered, there was no way to tell whether the bullets and shell casings were fired by the same gun. (Duh?)

An officer presented a videotape of the crime scene that was taken by a security camera across the street. He described the video as “poor,” and it was, but it was possible to make out the two men walking a dog, then splitting up. Two other men came across the street from the gas station, and someone started running after them. The pursued men split up, and the man in pursuit chased one of them behind two delivery trucks in front of the grocery store.

Another officer testified that the defendant was apprehended in Champaign.

The prosecution then rested.

The defense attorney stood up and said he had no witnesses to call, but wanted to introduce a stipulation that one of the prosecution’s witnesses had given an incorrect date of birth to the police. After which the defense rested.

The judge announced that we would hear closing arguments on Friday morning.

FRIDAY

We were told to be at court at 11 a.m. for closing arguments, but weren’t called in to the courtroom until about 11:30. The female State’s Attorney, who appeared to be the junior member of the team, used the large television screen to show  a Powerpoint presentation that listed the charges (there were three) and evidence for each charge.

The defense attorney’s argument was that the witnesses were unreliable. Two had previous convictions for drug offenses. One said he could not identify the shooter. Another gave an incorrect date of birth to the police when he was being questioned. None of the witnesses went to the police; the police came to them. What was the defendant doing in Champaign if the murder was committed in Chicago?

The senior State’s Attorney then gave his rebuttal, which was that the witnesses saw what they saw. They all told the same story, but from different positions. There was no inconsistency between their testimonies, or with video or other evidence, and for that to be the case they had to either be in a conspiracy together, or telling the truth.

At about 12:30 the judge sent us to the jury room to deliberate.

Deliberations were painstaking. We had to draw out a map of the area so we could all visualize where all the witnesses were. We watched the video several times, looking for something that contradicted any of the testimony. We found only corroboration of the witnesses’ testimony. We went over the two young women’s phone records of that day, and the records corroborated – or at least did not contradict – their story. Several calls were made from one woman’s phone to the defendant’s mother. We discussed whether the fact that none of the witnesses went directly to the police lessened the probity of their testimony.

There were two jury members who were reluctant to vote guilty, and the jury foreman was careful to let them fully explore the uncertainties they had.

At about 5:15, the deputy sheriff brought in our dinner (white bread sandwiches) in styrofoam containers. “I think the judge is sending us a message,” I said to the deputy. She smiled and said, “That’s right!”

Before we sat down to dinner, the foreman polled the jury again, and everyone was ready to vote guilty. We took care of signing the forms, then pressed the button that advised the deputy sheriff that we had reached a verdict. She came quickly and said she would advise the judge, but that it would be a while before all the parties involved could be called back together. Then we sat down to our "dinners" – sandwiches, chips, and soda.

At about 6:00 we were called into the courtroom and the decision for each count was read aloud. The defense attorney asked to have the jury polled, and each member of the jury confirmed that he/she had found the defendant guilty.

The judge then dismissed us, and we returned to the jury room. From there, the (armed) deputy sheriff escorted us outside and across 26th Street to the jury’s parking garage.

I'm glad to have done it. I was impressed with the whole process. The trial was fair. I still marvel at the courage of the people who stepped forward to testify. That's a dangerous neighborhood, and their names are known.

Everybody took this whole thing very seriously, as they should.  In it's deliberations, every member of the jury was careful not to get ahead of the facts, and looked for reasons to question the evidence presented. In the end, we agreed there was no "reasonable" reading of the evidence except that the defendant was the person who killed the 17-year-old. I was at peace with myself.

Wouldn't want to do it again, though.

Thursday, September 13, 2012

Just in Case You Still Don't Think Fox is Doing It Intentionally


I have a dream. My dream is that Obama blows Mitt and Pinnocchio Paul so far out of the water that the GOP finally decides to throw the wackos out of the party. That's some dream, huh?

But really, the country is in real danger if politicians and the press can repeatedly lie and distort and get away with it. .

Steve Benen brings this headline to our attention:


Benen says:
I should note that the headline not only seems to accuse the president of being some kind of traitor, it also underscores a striking ignorance -- Libyan officials are mortified by Tuesday night's violence, support the U.S. presence in the country, and have begun making arrests as part of the investigation into the murders. Under the circumstances, having the U.S. president call his Libyan counterpart to reinforce the diplomatic ties is hardly controversial -- it's no different from George W. Bush calling Iraqi leaders after violence that killed Americans during the war in Iraq.
But the truth is neither provocative nor scandalous, so Fox Nation has to give reality a little touch up. At most news organizations, a headline like this would lead to dismissals. At Fox Nation, a headline like this is called "Thursday." [my emphasis]
Kent Jones has taken to calling Fox's headline writers, "news alchemists." It's a title that's well deserved.

Wednesday, September 12, 2012

Hillary's Comments on Libya Attack


A must-see.


Visit NBCNews.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

Wow. Where did Obama find this lady?

Update: There has been some confusion about whether I liked this talk. I did.

Tuesday, September 11, 2012

Fox News Caught Lying AGAIN


Anyone who thinks this was just an accident on Fox News' part hasn't been paying attention.

As with the videos they've falsified, they'll probably issue some kind of corrective statement. And once again they'll warn their staff to never, never do that again.

Wink.

Monday, September 10, 2012

I Wish I'd Known Before the Season Started


To me George Will has always been the personification of the effete snob – the kid named Sidney who wore a suit with shorts and knee socks and ate watercress sandwiches. A real-life Chadsworth Osborne, Jr.

But I didn't know he was tin-foil hat crazy!
College football became a national phenomenon because it supposedly served the values of progressivism, in two ways. It exemplified specialization, expertise and scientific management. And it would reconcile the public to the transformation of universities, especially public universities, into something progressivism desired but the public found alien. Replicating industrialism’s division of labor, universities introduced the fragmentation of the old curriculum of moral instruction into increasingly specialized and arcane disciplines. These included the recently founded social sciences — economics, sociology, political science — that were supposed to supply progressive governments with the expertise to manage the complexities of the modern economy and the simplicities of the uninstructed masses.

Football taught the progressive virtue of subordinating the individual to the collectivity. Inevitably, this led to the cult of one individual, the coach.

[snip]

Progressives saw football as training managers for the modern regulatory state. Ingrassia says that a Yale professor, the social Darwinist William Graham Sumner (who was Camp’s brother-in-law), produced one academic acolyte who thought the “English race” was establishing hegemony because it played the “sturdiest” sports.
Well, there you have it, guys. He has a regular column in the Washington Post and appears weekly on one of the Sunday talking head shows. There's really nothing I can say.

Speaking of Brass


This morning's Washington Post has an "adaptation" from Bob Woodward's new book, The Price of Politics. It concerns the debt ceiling crisis of July and August 2011, when the Republicans threatened to blow apart the world economy if they didn't get their way.
“[A veto of the Republican plan] would have massive effects,” Geithner said. Treasury had to conduct a bond auction in the open market in about five days, the regular Tuesday auction, with settlement on Thursday. That first auction could be a kind of tripwire, setting off a chain reaction. The federal government couldn’t pay its bills. “Why would anyone buy U.S. bonds if it’s an open question whether we are going to have the authority to pay for them?”

Another possible outcome, Geithner said, was perhaps worse. “Suppose we have an auction and no one shows up?”

The cascading impact would be unknowable. The world could decide to dump U.S. Treasuries. Prices would plummet, interest rates would skyrocket. The one pillar of stability, the United States, the rock in the global economy, could collapse.

“So,” the president said, “if we give $1.2 trillion now in spending cuts” — the amount in the House bill to get the first increase in the debt ceiling for about six to nine months — “what happens next time?” The Republicans would then come back next year, in the middle of the presidential campaign, and impose more conditions on the next debt ceiling increase. He could not give the Republicans that kind of leverage, that kind of weapon. It was hostage taking. It was blackmail. “This will forever change the relationship between the presidency and the Congress.

“Imagine if, when Nancy Pelosi had become speaker, she had said to George W. Bush, ‘End the Iraq war, or I’m going to cause a global financial crisis.’ ”

So, Obama said, they had to break the Republicans on this. Otherwise, they would be back whenever it suited them politically.

They were out of options, Geithner said. The only one might be accepting the House bill, loathsome as it might be. “The 2008 financial crisis will be seen as a minor blip if we default,” he said.

The president said, “The Republicans are forcing the risk of a default on us. I can’t stop them from doing that. We can have the fight now, or we can have the fight later on, but the fight is coming to us.”

So, no, Obama said, he was not going to cave. Period. He said good night, got up and left.
... Obama never had to confront the veto question. A few days later, House Republicans dropped their insistence on the two-step plan. The final plan accepted a debt limit increase that would take the country through the 2012 presidential contest. It also postponed $2.4 trillion in spending cuts until early 2013.

Sunday, September 09, 2012

Credit Where Credit is Due


At a wonderful Bat Mizvah luncheon yesterday, I mentioned that some wag had suggested that Bill Clinton be appointed to the Cabinet as "Secretary of Explaining Stuff."

It turns out that "wag" is the President of the United States, whose staff had apparently read it on a tweet; only the tweet didn't say "stuff."

Saturday, September 08, 2012

Boing!


Romney got next to no bounce in the polls from the Republican convention.

Things are looking much better for Obama.
[T]he key to understanding these numbers is to remember that these are tracking polls. So a significant amount of the data in each is from calls prior to the big speeches at the Democratic convention, especially for Gallup which has the longest collection interval. Nate Silver calculates that to get the numbers to move that quickly Obama has likely been up between 7 to 9 points since the Clinton speech.
Nate Silver's comment is important. Silver understands polls better than anyone.

Thursday, September 06, 2012

Are We Better Off?


Nicholas Kristof:
On a backpacking trip once, I slipped on a steep ice sheet and began sliding uncontrollably toward the edge of a cliff overhanging an icy river.

Luckily, my son pulled me to safety with his trekking pole. Am I better off now than I was when I was sliding toward the abyss? Duh! 

Fact Checking the AP Way


Tom Raum (who grew up in Bergenfield, New Jersey – more's the shame! – and is getting kind of crotchety) and Matt Apuzzo fact-checked Bill Clinton's speech last night.  Read it if you want to waste your time (example: Rahm Emmanuel is a well-known mean guy, so Congressional impasse is as much the Democrats' fault as the Republicans'); but in case you have a life worth living, here's the only taste of it you'll need:
CLINTON: "Their campaign pollster said, 'We're not going to let our campaign be dictated by fact checkers.' Now that is true. I couldn't have said it better myself - I just hope you remember that every time you see the ad."
THE FACTS: Clinton, who famously finger-wagged a denial on national television about his sexual relationship with intern Monica Lewinsky and was subsequently impeached in the House on a perjury charge, has had his own uncomfortable moments over telling the truth. "I did not have sexual relations with that woman, Miss Lewinsky," Clinton told television viewers. Later, after he was forced to testify to a grand jury, Clinton said his statements were "legally accurate" but also allowed that he "misled people, including even my wife."
At the Associated Press, that's called "fact checking." See Paul Krugman in the post just below this one.

Incidentally, Neil Newhouse, the Romney campaign pollster in question, did say that. You could make an argument that Clinton took the quote out of context, though the context is just self-serving twaddle. But be my guest.

Update: This "fact check" is apparently getting a lot of attention around the internet. There are some pretty good tweets here.

Sunday, September 02, 2012

Krugman is Absolutely Right


Thank goodness for Paul Krugman. He's not the only one who has called out Pinocchio Ryan, but he's the only one I know of who's calling out the political columnists, who don't like to have their wisdom questioned.

Everybody Does It

That seems to be the new Beltway line, now that the shock over the lie-fest in Tampa has died down a bit. At the Washington Post (except at Ezra’s blog), at Politico, and so on, it’s excuse time — sure, Ryan and Romney told a few whoppers, but isn’t that just how politics is?

It’s not hard to understand why this is happening. For one thing, there’s the views-differ-on-shape-of-planet ethos that has imbued political journalism for many years now. On top of that, a lot of people in DC have major reputational capital at stake. After all the puff pieces on Paul Ryan, after all the op-eds praising his truthfulness and responsibility, after not one, not two, but three Pete Peterson-backed deficit-hawk organizations gave Ryan an award for fiscal responsibility, admitting that he’s actually a big low-body-fat liar would be extremely painful.

But the excuses just aren’t true. Read Dylan Matthews on the amazing string of false or misleading statements in Ryan’s speech; look at how Mitt Romney flipped from government spending is good to government spending is bad in just a few sentences. Can you find stuff like that in previous conventions, and in particular on the Democratic side? I don’t think so.

Yes, Bill Clinton and John Edwards lied about sex. Shame on them, but what does that have to do with policy?

This is something new in American politics, and everyone trying to deny that fact is in effect an enabler.
Italic emphasis is mine.

Saturday, September 01, 2012

Clint Eastwood


A good friend wrote to ask what I thought of the Clint Eastwood fiasco at the Republican National Convention.

Well, I really LIKE Clint Eastwood, in spite of his political leanings. He is a fine director and there are worst actors. I was embarrassed for him.

But I am pleased as punch that when the national networks finally tuned in to the RNC Thursday night, to cover Romney's speech, everyone got to see Clint's performance first. From a Romney Campaign pespective, it was a disaster. So that's good.

Jon Stewart has the best coverage, as usual:



Via Crooks and Liars.

A Modest Suggestion for President Obama


Last night I got to watch two Beltway thinkers, David Brooks and Mark Shields, discuss the prospect of a second term for President Obama. As I recall it, they agreed that the Republican Party was full of Bold Ideas, but that Obama really had nothing.

If Obama is really hard-pressed for ideas, I just happen to have one for his acceptance speech this Thursday: tackling the Medicare problem – no vouchers allowed.

They said only Nixon could go to China, by which was meant that only a veteran Commie-hater president could visit China without the right wing being hysterical that he was secretly planning to turn America over to the Peoples' Army. And "they" were right.

By the same token, only the Democrats can "reform" Medicare. The Republicans are determined to end it, replacing it with a voucher system. What Obama needs is a Democratic Senate and a Democratic House, and he should say so.  A continuation of a divided Congress is not a check-and-balance so much as it is a recipe for more stalemate.
"Give me a Democratic House and a Democratic Senate, and we'll tackle this problem, but we'll tackle it with the idea that we'll do what we need to to save as much of it as we can. We won't be like the Republicans, who think America is incapable of solving this problem and have already given up on it. And this way you'll know, if cuts truly are necessary, that they're unavoidable cuts, and the least painful cuts – not just cuts designed to lower Mitt Romney's taxes – because the Democrats built it and we want to save it."


Wednesday, August 29, 2012

The Real David Brooks


I'd just about given up on David Brooks. Often described as the "liberal's favorite conservative," Brooks can both read and write. [That's an obscure T. E. Lawrence reference, actually.]

As a student at the University of Chicago, he wrote a satirical piece for the school newspaper about a William F. Buckley book called "Overdrive." When Buckley later gave a lecture at Chicago, he announced from the podium, "David Brooks, if you're in the audience, I'd like to offer you a job."

I wish Brooks wrote more satire. His satirical pieces are much, much better than his very serious pieces.

Take for example, this biography of The Real Romney:
Mitt Romney was born on March 12, 1947, in Ohio, Florida, Michigan, Virginia and several other swing states. He emerged, hair first, believing in America, and especially its national parks. He was given the name Mitt, after the Roman god of mutual funds, and launched into the world with the lofty expectation that he would someday become the Arrow shirt man.

Romney was a precocious and gifted child. He uttered his first words (“I like to fire people”) at age 14 months, made his first gaffe at 15 months and purchased his first nursery school at 24 months. The school, highly leveraged, went under, but Romney made 24 million Jujubes on the deal.

Mitt grew up in a modest family. His father had an auto body shop called the American Motors Corporation, and his mother owned a small piece of land, Brazil. He had several boyhood friends, many of whom owned Nascar franchises, and excelled at school, where his fourth-grade project, “Inspiring Actuaries I Have Known,” was widely admired.

The Romneys had a special family tradition. The most cherished member got to spend road trips on the roof of the car. Mitt spent many happy hours up there, applying face lotion to combat windburn.

The teenage years were more turbulent. He was sent to a private school, where he was saddened to find there are people in America who summer where they winter. He developed a lifelong concern for the second homeless, and organized bake sales with proceeds going to the moderately rich.
 The whole thing is here.

Saturday, August 18, 2012

The Emperor's New Clothes


Why does Paul Ryan always remind me of The Emperor's New Clothes, the classic Hans Christian Andersen tale? In it, two weavers make a suit of clothes for the king that they claim is made of a special cloth, invisible to stupid people or people unfit for the office they hold. When the king dons his "new suit," and sees nothing at all, he and the members of his court are too afraid of seeming stupid or incompetent to admit aloud the obvious.

In his analysis of Ryan's famous "budget," Paul Krugman suggests the solution to my puzzle:
First, there are a set of tax cuts for higher income brackets and corporations. The Tax Policy Center (pdf) estimates the cost of these tax cuts, relative to current policy, at $4.3 trillion.
Second, there are spending cuts. Of these, approximately $800 billion comes from converting Medicaid into a block grant that grows only with population and overall inflation – a big cut compared with projections that take into account rising health-care costs and an aging population (since the elderly and disabled account for most Medicaid expenses). Another $130 billion comes from doing something similar to food stamps. Then there are odds and ends – Pell grants, job training. Be generous and call all of this $1 trillion in specified cuts.
On top of this we should add the $700 billion in Medicare cuts that Ryan denounces in Obamacare but nonetheless incorporates into his own plan.
So if we look at the actual policy proposals, they look like this:
Spending cuts: $1.7 trillion
Tax cuts: $4.3 trillion
This is, then, a plan that would increase the deficit by around $2.6 trillion.
How, then, does Ryan get to call himself a fiscal hawk? By asserting that he will keep his tax cuts revenue-neutral by broadening the base in ways he refuses to specify, and that he will make further large cuts in spending, in ways he refuses to specify.
And this is what passes inside the Beltway for serious thinking and a serious commitment to deficit reduction.
 Indeed.

Monday, August 13, 2012

Sempringham Calls Another One


It was no surprise to the highly intelligent readers of Sempringham when Paul Ryan was announced as Mitt Romney's choice for vice president. After all, they'd had the tea leaves read for them.


Tuesday, August 07, 2012

Why The Stock Market Is Still Not A Safe Place To Be


Something very significant happened on Wall Street last Wednesday: HAL, the computer in 2001: A Space Odyssey, decided to get into the stock market at a firm called Knight Capital Group. Before they pulled the plug, HAL had lost the company $440 million. Not bad for a half-hour's work.

HAL was able to do it because the days of value investing in the stock market are close to over. Instead, the place is given over to boys with their toys: high speed computerized stock trading programs that buy and sell huge blocks of stocks several times a day based on penny differences in price. No "buy and hold" for this crowd.

Felix Salmon has an amazing animated graphic which illustrates the increase of computerized high frequency trading. Please take a look at it. Please, please, please. Keep an eye on the dates in the lower left-hand corner, and watch it to the end. (It's in a continuous loop, it will be obvious when it has started again.)

Salmon says:
Back in 2007, I wasn’t a fan of a financial-transactions tax; today, I am. And this chart shows better than anything why my opinion has changed. The stock market is clearly more dangerous than it was in 2007, with much greater tail risk; meanwhile, in return for facing that danger, society as a whole has received precious little utility. Are spreads a tiny bit tighter than they might be otherwise? Perhaps. But that has no effect on stock-market returns for long-term or even medium-term investors.
The stock market today is a war zone, where algobots fight each other over pennies, millions of times a second. Sometimes, the casualties are merely companies like Knight, and few people have much sympathy for them. But inevitably, at some point in the future, significant losses will end up being borne by investors with no direct connection to the HFT world, which is so complex that its potential systemic repercussions are literally unknowable. The potential cost is huge; the short-term benefits are minuscule. Let’s give HFT the funeral it deserves.
That would be a start, but just a start.  Glass-Steagall, the repeal of which played a large part in the Crash of 2008, is no closer to being restored than it was then. Not a confidence builder.

Andrew Sorkin reports, "Of 878 students at 18 high schools across 11 different states surveyed by the Financial Literacy Group, three-quarters of them said they agreed with this statement: “The stock market is rigged mostly to benefit greedy Wall Street bankers.”

Pretty smart kids.

Sunday, August 05, 2012

Very Cool


Don't miss this little video that compares the speeds of Olympic 100-meter sprinters since 1896. Maybe, like me, you don't really care about track and field. Watch it anyway. It's very cool.


Thursday, August 02, 2012

Romney's Tax Plan


Kevin Drum is my go-to guy for clear analysis of tax policy. This rundown on the recent Brookings Institution/Tax Policy Center report on Romney's proposed tax cuts lays it out very clearly.
There are two parts to Mitt Romney's tax plan. Here they are:
Part 1: Romney wants to lower tax rates. This part of his plan is extremely detailed. Tax rates would be cut by a fifth across the board. Taxation of investment income would be eliminated for families with incomes under $200,000. The estate tax would be eliminated. The Alternative Minimum Tax would be eliminated. Obamacare's payroll tax increase on the wealthy would be repealed. The corporate tax rate would be cut to 25%.
Part 2: Romney wants to eliminate or reduce various tax credits and deductions in order to increase revenue. This would make up for the lost revenue from Part 1. However, he has provided zero detail about this part of his plan.
Isn't that odd? Romney has extremely specific thoughts about lowering tax rates and is willing to share chapter and verse. But when it comes to the part where you raise some taxes to make up for it, he suddenly thinks he ought to defer to Congress on the details instead of doing their job for them. Why is that?
The analysts at the Tax Policy Center provide a pretty good clue today. Romney himself won't say anything about the credits and deductions he'd target, so they made the most progressive assumptions they possibly could about them by "starting at the top." That is, they made a list of all the possible credits and deductions and then completely eliminated them for the highest income group. This would produce the largest possible increase for the wealthy. Then they worked their way down, and by the time they got to the bottom group they reduce the credits and deductions only enough to make the whole plan revenue neutral. This produced the smallest possible increase for the non-wealthy.
So: the biggest possible increase for the wealthy, the smallest possible increase for the less wealthy. For technical reasons, they could only model this down to $200,000, but that's enough to show what Romney's plan would do. ... When you combine the decrease in rates and the increase from credits and deductions, millionaires would get a tax cut of 4.1%. Everyone under $200,000 would get a tax increase of 1.2%.
At this point, President Obama's problem is trying to get people to believe that Romney actually supports a plan that's so outlandishly friendly to the rich. When the Priorities USA Super PAC tried to inform voters about Paul Ryan's similar plan, Robert Draper reports that "the respondents simply refused to believe any politician would do such a thing." And Romney, of course, will hide behind the fact that he himself hasn't endorsed any particular basket of tax increases to make up for his rate cuts, so the Brookings analysis is just guesswork.
 

Wednesday, August 01, 2012

Mr. Bean goes to Poland


Loved this, from Paul Krugman:

So on the third leg of his foreign tour, Mr. Bean Mitt Romney lavished praise on the Polish economy. It wasn’t quite as big a blooper as his praise for Israel’s single-payer-plus-price controls health care system, but it wasn’t good.


For one thing, Poland has substantially bigger government than the US; in 2007, that is, pre-crisis, the Polish government spent 42 percent of GDP, compared with 37 in the United States. And despite what Romney claimed, there was no obvious trend toward smaller government; Polish spending as a share of GDP was about the same in 2007 as it had been in 2000.

Oh, and universal health care too.

What's the Matter with Texas?


Ian Millhiser at Think Progress offers a profile of Ted Cruz, who will be the Republican candidate for Kay Baily Hutchinson's seat in the Senate. According to Millhiser, Cruz has "considerable intellect." I guess the bar for considerable intellect has been lowered considerably lately. As Millhiser details, Cruz:

1) Believes George Soros is behind a U.N. plot to eliminate golf courses.

2) Thinks Social Security is a Ponzi scheme.

3) Thinks two states can join together to ignore national laws they don't like.

4) Thinks Sharia law is an enormous problem in the U.S.

And my personal favorite:

5)
Cruz’s very first campaign ad encouraged GOP primary voters to support him because he helped make it easier for Texas to kill an “illegal alien.” According to the ad, “Cruz fought all the way to the Supreme Court” after “the UN and World Court overruled a Texas jury’s verdict to execute an illegal alien.” In reality, the case Cruz won had nothing to do with whether Texas had the authority to kill this man. Rather, it concerned whether Texas could defy a treaty requiring it to inform foreign nationals who are arrested of their right “to request assistance from the consul of his own state.” Even North Korea honored this treaty that Cruz fought to undermine.
Something is misfiring in this considerable intellect.


Monday, July 23, 2012

Thorium


All of sudden I'm seeing articles and videos about thorium, a radioactive metal once considered for nuclear power plants but rejected in favor of uranium. This article from Popular Mechanics actually has the best executive summary. A snippet, with my highlights:
Three to four times more plentiful than uranium, today's most common nuclear fuel, thorium packs a serious energetic punch: A single ton of it can generate as much energy as 200 tons of uranium, according to Nobel Prize-winning physicist Carlo Rubbia. In the mid-twentieth century, some U.S. physicists considered building the nuclear power landscape around thorium. But uranium-fueled reactors produced plutonium as a byproduct, a necessary ingredient for nuclear weapons production, and uranium ended up dominating through the Cold War and beyond. 
[snip]

In a traditional light water reactor, uranium-235 interacts with uranium-238 to produce plutonium-239 as a byproduct—a radioactive isotope that can be used for weapons. But when thorium is used instead of uranium-238 as a fertile material to kickstart nuclear fission, the thorium eventually "becomes uranium-233, which fissions almost instantaneously in the reactor, generating other isotopes that make power," Grae says. That means usable weapons-grade nuclear material is not produced, which would theoretically eliminate some security issues now associated with nuclear plants. Grae also claims thorium-powered light water reactors produce a much smaller volume of waste products that decay to relatively safe levels in just six to seven hundred years.
 Interesting.

Saturday, July 21, 2012

Aurora, Colorado


Roger Ebert in today's NY Times:
Immediately after a shooting last month in the food court of the Eaton Centre mall in Toronto, a young woman named Jessica Ghawi posted a blog entry. Three minutes before a gunman opened fire, she had been seated at the exact place he fired from.

“I was shown how fragile life was,” she wrote. “I saw the terror on bystanders’ faces. I saw the victims of a senseless crime. I saw lives change. I was reminded that we don’t know when or where our time on Earth will end. When or where we will breathe our last breath.”

This same woman was one of the fatalities at the midnight screening in Aurora. The circle of madness is closing.
I've given up on gun control. There are valid arguments against gun control, but the loony bin is overflowing. This is partly the fault of gun control advocates, who think there's no valid reason to want a gun, so don't understand why anyone would resist gun control. It's certainly the fault of the American Rifle Association, which created and encourages the stereotype of the gun owner as a paranoid fetishist.

It's not going to be resolved in my lifetime.

Wednesday, July 18, 2012

Thanks, Senator McCain


Wow! Somebody in the GOP is finally standing up to the nut cases.



There is still a large group of Americans who think Joseph McCarthy was a patriot. 

Why Won't Romney Release His Tax Returns?


The contemplation of Romney's refusal to release tax returns left out an obvious and likely possibility:

In one or more years he paid no taxes at all, or ridiculously low taxes, on significant income. We'll call that one the Leona Helmsley Defense.


Monday, July 16, 2012

Romney and the Middle Class


The Tax Policy Center has released it's analysis of Romney's tax plans and Ezra Klein at the Washington Post created a little chart to compare Romney's vision to Obama's:

The numbers along the bottom are the income quintiles: lowest 0-20 percent, etc. The last two bars represent the effect on the top 1 percent and the top .1 percent. You're going to have to click on the chart to make it bigger in order to read it. Among the many jaw-dropping aspects of Romney's plan, please notice that taxes on the lowest 20 percent will increase.

Mike Lux at Crooks and Liars:
As someone in Romney’s opposing camp, I am enjoying the spectacle [of the increasing call for Romney's tax records]. But this whole mess with Romney and his financial secrets reminds us again of a bigger, deeper truth: the rich - at least people who got rich the way Romney did - really are different than you and I. The story of how Mitt Romney got so wealthy, and then how he hid all that wealth and avoided taxes on it, is also the story of the modern decline of America’s middle class.
Right around the time Mitt Romney went into business in the early ‘80s was the moment when, aided directly by Reagan administration policies and the kind of corporate sharks Romney became, the middle class in this country began to decline in size, strength and prosperity. Mitt Romney and his fellow Wall Street sharks became so stunningly wealthy precisely because most of the rest of us got poorer. The working and middle class in this country got laid off, down-sized, out-sourced; their wages went down or flat, their out-of-pocket health care costs went up, and their pensions disappeared; the price of energy and groceries and other necessities went way up; and when the bubble caused by the out of control speculation of Wall Street burst, their one remaining asset - their homes - lost much of its value.
Meanwhile, the guys like Romney who were doing the out-sourcing, lay-offing, wage and benefit-slashing, and financial speculating got filthy rich, and then because of our unprogressive tax laws and because they used Cayman Island and Swiss bank accounts to hide their money, they paid a smaller share of their taxes than those hard-pressed folks in the middle class. [Bolding and paragraph structure courtesy of me.]
Back in January, Romney gave a different view of things:
According to Mitt Romney, the nation's growing focus on income inequality is all about envy.
"You know, I think it's about envy. I think it's about class warfare," the leading Republican presidential candidate said Wednesday on The Today Show.

Obama on the Right Track


Two good current ads from the Obama campaign:







For days we've been reading that the Bain attacks are working, so it's no wonder that, despite Romney's demand for an apology (which would apparently remove forever the possibility of Obama being called a "great" president), the Obama campaign is not backing down. I was worried when I saw Krugman's VSPs (Very Serious People) again missing the forest for the trees.

Paul Krugman:
A lot of people inside the Beltway are tut-tutting about the recent campaign focus on Mitt Romney’s personal history — his record of profiting even as workers suffered, his mysterious was-he-or-wasn’t-he role at Bain Capital after 1999, his equally mysterious refusal to release any tax returns from before 2010. Some of the tut-tutters are upset at any suggestion that this election is about the rich versus the rest. Others decry the personalization: why can’t we just discuss policy?

And neither group is living in the real world.
About those tax returns:



And I especially liked this one:



Why is Romney refusing to release more than his most recent tax returns? I've come up with four possible explanations, though I expect there are more.
He's hiding something that would be very bad for his campaign. The most obvious explanation, though even Krugman couches it with an adverb: "[Romney is] evidently afraid to let voters see his tax returns." Let's call it the Willie Sutton defense.

He's hiding something that would be injurious to himself in the business world, by either tipping his hand on investments or showing himself to be duplicitous to his partners or others: the Unregulated Business defense. Since Romney has already released his 2010 tax returns, the "tipping his hand" part seems unlikely.

He strongly believes his personal privacy is very important, and should not be compromised in order to run for political office. Let's call this one the Candide defense.

There's nothing there. He's just waiting for the attacks to peak, then he'll release his tax returns to show that his detractors are just a bunch of fruit cakes. The Obama's Birth Certificate defense.
If the reason he's reluctant to release the tax returns is related to the Candide or Obama's Birth Certificate defense, we should expect them to be released fairly soon. He's taking a beating.

If the reason he's holding back is either the Willie Sutton or Unregulated Business defense, we'll probably never see them.

Can you think of another reason he won't release his tax returns? Let me know if you can, but be sure to give the defense a name.



Tuesday, July 10, 2012

Some Good Zingers


Although the Tea Party crowd claims the Founding Fathers as their political ancestors, their sense of American History is based on fantasy.

Benjamin Franklin:
"All the property that is necessary to a Man, for the Conservation of the Individual and the Propagation of the Species, is his natural Right, which none can justly deprive him of: But all Property superfluous to such purposes is the Property of the Publick, who, by their Laws, have created it, and who may therefore by other laws dispose of it, whenever the Welfare of the Publick shall demand such Disposition. He that does not like civil Society on these Terms, let him retire and live among Savages. He can have no right to the benefits of Society, who will not pay his Club towards the Support of it. "
James Madison:
"There is an evil which ought to be guarded against in the indefinite accumulation of property from the capacity of holding it in perpetuity by … corporations. The power of all corporations ought to be limited in this respect. The growing wealth acquired by them never fails to be a source of abuses."
Thomas Jefferson:
"I hope we shall crush in its birth the aristocracy of our moneyed corporations which dare already to challenge our government in a trial of strength, and bid defiance to the laws of our country." 
Hat tip to Hullabaloo and Andrew Tobias.

Tobias then quotes a reader, Mike Martin:
The Republicans trumpet their anti-tax message cloaked in ‘Tea Party’ garb as if the Boston Tea Party was a tax protest. Read the history: the British government had just LOWERED the tax on tea when the protest occurred. The issue was not the tax requirement, it was that only licensed tea merchants could sell tea, which undercut both John Hancock’s commercial empire and the widespread smuggling of tea. But perhaps more importantly, after the American Revolution they formed a government without a strong power to tax. After the Shay anti-tax rebellion, George Washington and others held the Constitutional Congress with the Shay’s rebellion as the clarion call for a stronger central government. In other words, the United States of America, the government formed under the U.S. Constitution, was formed precisely to COUNTER an anti-tax rebellion. So the existing Republican Party forms its foundation on opposition to the United States of America and its Constitution: they regularly claim that government is the enemy of the people … ”
 Mike Martin has it absolutely correct.

Saturday, July 07, 2012

Musical Interlude


I used to own the album shown in this video. It's a bootleg copy of a Bob Dylan recording session. But I lost it in a one of Chicago's wonderful floods.

And I always loved this particular cut of the album. Dylan was going to sing it on the Ed Sullivan show, and Ed was cool with that, but the CBS lawyers freaked out, and said he couldn't sing it. Dylan walked off the set, and never appeared on the show.

Listening to it now, you might wonder what the hubbub was about. Funny how often that happens.

It's a very funny song, and it makes fun of a bunch of people who – decades later – look absolutely ridiculous. Sort of like Republicans today.






Friday, July 06, 2012

The Education of Judge Richard Posner


Back in 2009 we alerted you to the fact that one of the "intellectual giants" of the conservative movement, federal circuit court judge Richard Posner, had become a Keynsian.

It's taken three years, but Posner kept thinking:
Posner expressed admiration for President Ronald Reagan and the economist Milton Friedman, two pillars of conservatism. [Give him time; give him time.] But over the past 10 years, Posner said, "there's been a real deterioration in conservative thinking. And that has to lead people to re-examine and modify their thinking."
"I've become less conservative since the Republican Party started becoming goofy," he said. [Editorial note: That was 32 years ago.]
Posner, who was appointed to the appeals court by Reagan, speculated that the leaks about the deliberations over the national health care law — which are apparently designed to discredit Chief Justice John Roberts' opinion upholding the law — would backfire. "I think these right-wingers who are blasting Roberts are making a very serious mistake," he said.
"Because if you put [yourself] in his position ... what's he supposed to think? That he finds his allies to be a bunch of crackpots? Does that help the conservative movement? I mean, what would you do if you were Roberts? All the sudden you find out that the people you thought were your friends have turned against you, they despise you, they mistreat you, they leak to the press. What do you do? Do you become more conservative? Or do you say, 'What am I doing with this crowd of lunatics?' Right? Maybe you have to re-examine your position."

Tee-Hee!


Amy Sullivan in The New Republic online:
A Republican state representative in Louisiana now says she was confused when she enthusiastically supported Gov. Bobby Jindal’s voucher bill to fund private schools. From the Livingston Parish News (free registration required):
"WATSON — Rep. Valarie Hodges, R-Watson, says she had no idea that Gov. Bobby Jindal’s overhaul of the state’s educational system might mean taxpayer support of Muslim schools …
'I liked the idea of giving parents the option of sending their children to a public school or a Christian school,' Hodges said.
Hodges mistakenly assumed that 'religious' meant 'Christian.'
HB976, now signed into law as Act 2, proposed, among other things, a voucher program allowing state educational funds to be used to send students to schools run by religious groups …
'Unfortunately it will not be limited to the Founders’ religion,' Hodges said. 'We need to insure that it does not open the door to fund radical Islam schools. There are a thousand Muslim schools that have sprung up recently. I do not support using public funds for teaching Islam anywhere here in Louisiana.'"
I love that line about mistakenly assuming that “religious” meant “Christian.” It happens to so many people…

The Meritocracy at Work


Q.  How do you build your tax-sheltered IRA to a value of $100 million when the annual contribution is limited to $6,000?

 A.  Be Mitt Romney.

Monday, July 02, 2012

A New Blog


I've started a new blog that I'm calling Down the Rabbit Hole. It's where I'll be putting the little stories I discover when researching 19th century photographs. The first post is up.

If you're interested in those things, you might want to subscribe or sign up for the RSS feed, so you don't have to check it all the time.