The Princeton Election Consortium, a creation of Princeton University academics (particularly Professor Sam Wang, whose concentrations are biophysics and neuroscience), is a liberal poll aggregate site. They are good at arithmetic, and did a great job in 2008.
Their banner today reads:
"Probability of Obama re-election: Random Drift 98.2%, Bayesian Prediction 99.8%"
I have no idea what Random Drift and Bayesian Prediction are, but I think these might be good numbers.
On a level that I can understand, Wang says,
A few days ago, the word was that Team Romney was buying ads in Minnesota and Pennsylvania. If he wins either of those states I will eat a bug. Ohio…a really big bug. And yes, I will post a photo.Now THAT's science I can believe in.
I was shocked to see that Nate Silver has been physically attacked at the NY Times.