Friday, December 05, 2008

Christmas Cheer -- Not!


Yesterday Paul Krugman told us what to worry about:

I’ve been ruminating over economic prospects for next year, and I’m getting scared.

Two points:

1. The economy is falling fast. We’ll see what tomorrow’s employment report says, but we could well be losing jobs at a rate of 450,000 or 500,000 a month.

2. Infrastructure spending will take time to get going — a new Goldman Sachs report suggests that projects that are “shovel-ready” are probably only a few tens of billions worth, and that a larger effort would take much of a year to get going. Meanwhile, it’s very questionable how much effect tax rebates will have on consumer demand. So it may be hard for stimulus to get much traction until late 2009 — and that’s even if Congress goes along, which may be a problem given all the bad analysis and disinformation out there.

So here’s what I’m wondering: will it, in fact, even be possible to pull the economy out of its nosedive before unemployment goes into double digits? I’m starting to wonder.
This morning we got the really bad news:

With the economy deteriorating rapidly, the nation’s employers shed 533,000 jobs in November, the 11th consecutive monthly decline, the government reported Friday morning, and the unemployment rate rose to 6.7 percent.

The decline, the largest one-month loss since December 1974, was fresh evidence that the economic contraction accelerated in November, promising to make the current recession, already 12 months old, the longest since the Great Depression. The previous record was 16 months, in the severe recessions of the mid-1970s and early 1980s.
All of which reminds me of an idiotic remark made by Washington Post columnist George Will last week:

Obama’s “rescue plan for the middle class” includes a tax credit for businesses “for each new employee they hire” in America over the next two years. The assumption is that businesses will create jobs that would not have been created without the subsidy. If so, the subsidy will suffuse the economy with inefficiencies — labor costs not justified by value added.
Will is certainly in no danger of getting the Old Fezziwig Award this year.

My God, we're heading into the Second Great Depression, and the fool is worried about "labor costs not justified by value added." Is it any wonder conservativism failed so miserably? They just can't let go of their "philosophy". It's all they've got.


1 comment:

Sempringham said...

To which it should be added that tax credits do not "create inefficiencies" -- they create efficiencies that are in line with the country's need to put people to work.

Businesses will not hire additional employees to get a tax credit, but they will hire them if they need them and the tax credit tips the scale to making it efficient to do so.

That man really needs to get his head back into the light of day.