tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-160964672024-03-13T17:24:04.569-05:00SempringhamThis is a blog about history and politics, mostly.<br>
<br>Comments are welcome, and comment moderation has been turned off. To comment on a post, click on the word "Comments" <u>below</u> the post. You will be asked to type some letters you see. The purpose of this is to ensure you are a human being and not a spam machine.<br>
<br>Of course, you may be a human being <b>and</b> a spam machine. We'll be the judge of that.Sempringhamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14097820110236090973noreply@blogger.comBlogger1733125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16096467.post-17917349636077433322024-02-07T08:59:00.000-06:002024-02-07T08:59:19.995-06:00Unheeded, Prophetic Words<p>In a June 12, 1967, column in <i>I.F. Stone's Weekly</i>, Stone wrote:</p><p style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;">Israel's swift and brilliant victory only makes its reconciliation with the Arabs more urgent. Its future and world peace call for a general and final settlement now of the Palestine problem. The cornerstone of that settlement must be to find new homes for the Arab refugees, some within Israel, some outside it, all with compensation for their lost lands and properties. The world Jewish community, already girding itself for a huge financial effort to aid Israel, should be thankful that its victory has come with so little loss of life or damage to either side. The same funds may now be diverted to a constructive and human cause. It was a moral tragedy – to which no Jew worthy of our best Prophetic tradition could be insensitive – that a kindred people was made homeless in the task of finding new homes for the remnants of the Hitler holocaust. Now is the time to right that wrong, to show magnanimity in victory, and to lay the foundation of a new order in the Middle East in which Israeli and Arab can live in peace.</p><p style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;">This alone can make Israel secure. This is the third Israeli-Arab war in 20 years. In the absence of a general settlement, war will recur at regular intervals. The Arabs will thirst for revenge. </p><p style="text-align: left;"><br /></p>Bob Millerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08722931789115577841noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16096467.post-63867936713557295622022-11-18T16:22:00.003-06:002022-11-20T16:31:13.559-06:00Marine Traffic<p>There is a nifty application that we keep on our phone, and look at only occasionally, called <i>Marine Traffic</i>.</p><p>Most ships at sea use GPS not only to keep themselves on course, but to let others know where they are. <i>Marine Traffic</i> picks up those signals and maps the positions of the reporting ships. You can touch a ship's icon, and the program will tell you the ship's name, its speed, whether it's a tanker, a cargo ship, or whatever, where it started from, and where it's going.Very cool. </p><p>The other day we took a look at what's going on in the Atlantic Ocean, and saw this:</p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjvx6rfBExHvLm1Hh3Oh0XTZS0QIlBcojU2OtI66PGE4ZllMLAkmrgKhOA0AcUr65xa42uxIdqkQcQ_KT6q_NXfScR75GdX05OjuZ_lEkLEyL-X2217vGmOZYuJFoIYwoaZapiyMOA69fjTSAzG664eB0eFF53v0DvqLmVaB7Ub80b98Ck3jg/s1792/IMG_3737.PNG" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1792" data-original-width="828" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjvx6rfBExHvLm1Hh3Oh0XTZS0QIlBcojU2OtI66PGE4ZllMLAkmrgKhOA0AcUr65xa42uxIdqkQcQ_KT6q_NXfScR75GdX05OjuZ_lEkLEyL-X2217vGmOZYuJFoIYwoaZapiyMOA69fjTSAzG664eB0eFF53v0DvqLmVaB7Ub80b98Ck3jg/w296-h640/IMG_3737.PNG" width="296" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Click on map for a larger view.<br /></td></tr></tbody></table><p>This is actually a "summary" picture. There are far more ships than this, as you discover when you zoom in to the picture. But even so, we found one thing to be rather startling:</p><p>Those purple ships? Those are yachts.</p><p>Now take a look at the Indian Ocean:</p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhBGmz2G6c6_D4rss9LHM6Ftmciq676GwuHeNwCoMSxtquceDDt8FiMdtvkqZU5_9UzuNgbD78UwgVTYC_M8FUo5nZI9gw514Jd1NMln4dcE9pHjXJvPEukYRhTRW_AsyQOyIm4xjg7_PsXTIF7FN4reGDuEaLiyaieNmiQgYMx-Nlss0L8vA/s1792/IMG_3738.PNG" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1792" data-original-width="828" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhBGmz2G6c6_D4rss9LHM6Ftmciq676GwuHeNwCoMSxtquceDDt8FiMdtvkqZU5_9UzuNgbD78UwgVTYC_M8FUo5nZI9gw514Jd1NMln4dcE9pHjXJvPEukYRhTRW_AsyQOyIm4xjg7_PsXTIF7FN4reGDuEaLiyaieNmiQgYMx-Nlss0L8vA/w296-h640/IMG_3738.PNG" width="296" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Click on map for a larger view.<br /></td></tr></tbody></table><p>The red ships are tankers. The ones that appear to be black are fishing vessels. Cargo vessels are green.</p><p>Just thought that was interesting.</p><p><br /></p>Bob Millerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08722931789115577841noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16096467.post-24271212131474929522022-11-13T07:34:00.003-06:002022-11-13T07:34:54.298-06:00The Red Wave<p>There's nothing we can add to the unending commentary of the talking heads about the mid-term elections. But we did want to share this postcard, found lying in an alley beside a recycling bin:</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhrCui7x5fIcs7_I6tfbdrswHkn-A8sKUXGdv900rLgtb4PQHEkCZKe8qbfIdrPSDVzULr7r17f9wa9jvWJpMPVTN5KaFkMKgdPUg7SVLBPgasezzB5VgQox0yeBGN3Y1C5EzxABivl8A1IQf3np3gCPV8YV6ayzLUtfz8WQtZeDtDL1DLMuA/s593/Red%20Wave.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="393" data-original-width="593" height="265" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhrCui7x5fIcs7_I6tfbdrswHkn-A8sKUXGdv900rLgtb4PQHEkCZKe8qbfIdrPSDVzULr7r17f9wa9jvWJpMPVTN5KaFkMKgdPUg7SVLBPgasezzB5VgQox0yeBGN3Y1C5EzxABivl8A1IQf3np3gCPV8YV6ayzLUtfz8WQtZeDtDL1DLMuA/w400-h265/Red%20Wave.jpeg" width="400" /></a></div><p></p><p>(Tee-hee.)</p><p>Okay, I will add one observation. A billionaire named Dick Uihlein set fire to $50 million in an effort to get this alleged Christian, Darren Bailey, elected.</p><div style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi76VcALUB-rGdAKBbtjvmJxiIDR8s92mDyQjUNxzPSTQfPdidlTZTqKiXNcjFVzGQbUmrFTCwCMA9v-ZZTtYeMKJH5i7ARsDyVGrfml5SsKNSpVChzRs-MQZu6loKIBkoQPa4lF25BYAvtvpzzrrqT18UM21p34DKHx5u30jxsHHKNJSHyfg/s1452/NewYorkerRedWave.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" data-original-height="1452" data-original-width="1068" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi76VcALUB-rGdAKBbtjvmJxiIDR8s92mDyQjUNxzPSTQfPdidlTZTqKiXNcjFVzGQbUmrFTCwCMA9v-ZZTtYeMKJH5i7ARsDyVGrfml5SsKNSpVChzRs-MQZu6loKIBkoQPa4lF25BYAvtvpzzrrqT18UM21p34DKHx5u30jxsHHKNJSHyfg/w294-h400/NewYorkerRedWave.jpg" width="294" /></a></div><br /><p> We're still smiling.</p>Bob Millerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08722931789115577841noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16096467.post-28891515384037763242022-11-02T22:31:00.003-05:002022-11-02T22:32:44.008-05:00Where Could This War Go?<p>For those with the time, this discussion of the outlook for the war in Ukraine is very informative. The first 50 seconds or so is just an outtake from later in the discussion; i.e., it repeats itself. The whole thing is about 18 minutes.<br /></p><p>Where else have Iranian drones been used by one side, and Turkish drones by the other? It could be significant down the road.</p><p>What NATO country is most likely to wimp out this winter? His guess is the same as ours.<br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><iframe allowfullscreen="" class="BLOG_video_class" height="297" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Rv8mHoJhlLU" width="398" youtube-src-id="Rv8mHoJhlLU"></iframe></div><br />Bob Millerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08722931789115577841noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16096467.post-42636779211435457962022-10-30T12:47:00.005-05:002022-10-30T12:47:48.953-05:00On the Other Hand ...<p>A week ago <a href="https://sempringham.blogspot.com/2022/10/a-surprising-prediction.html" target="_blank">we heard</a> retired U.S. General Ben Hodges predict that Ukraine would take back Crimea next year. Wow! That's great news. </p><p>It is not an opinion held by all. In this video, former MI6 chief Alex Younger is not so optimistic. The entire interview is interesting and informative, but his opinion about the course of the war begins at about 8:50.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><iframe allowfullscreen="" class="BLOG_video_class" height="299" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/b73jKB7qxVo" width="455" youtube-src-id="b73jKB7qxVo"></iframe></div><br /><p><br /></p>Bob Millerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08722931789115577841noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16096467.post-77261727932678512092022-10-26T17:44:00.008-05:002022-10-27T07:58:01.565-05:00Ocean Conservation Namibia<p>Could you use a pick-me-up video? Give this one a try.</p><p>A small organization called Ocean Conservation Namibia is in the seal rescue business, if you can call it a business. On the coast of that southwest African nation, seals by the hundreds become entangled with fishing lines, fishing nets, gill nets, Coca-Cola cans, hard hat head bands – whatever is thrown in the ocean – in astounding numbers. In time, the entangled lines cut into the animals' necks, causing horrible wounds. These guys patrol the beaches and the docks looking for seals in such danger, capturing them, removing the entanglement, and setting them free.</p><p>What a great job!</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><iframe allowfullscreen="" class="BLOG_video_class" height="320" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/eDUmGNU2ThQ" width="470" youtube-src-id="eDUmGNU2ThQ"></iframe></div><br /> Bob Millerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08722931789115577841noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16096467.post-62044825549163832732022-10-18T09:48:00.000-05:002022-10-18T09:48:29.017-05:00What's Happening in Utah?<p> <table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2mJU8J0_ch1feMUKYJpuj8sOmwNHN0InJ2Hqi3VLWcjng8doEO7jPnjGQ7eDbsZj95g3Xu_zA1KGJTduyFvozxyAvnv5ZGvls_dhWyhc6QgcLM0YztLAbuBpIcl5C7GVwF5yE15CGNVz9naab-qOdwgfWiT-rTPNdj5lW5c7yG9_YR1bOYQ/s275/Trump%20&%20Lee.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="183" data-original-width="275" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2mJU8J0_ch1feMUKYJpuj8sOmwNHN0InJ2Hqi3VLWcjng8doEO7jPnjGQ7eDbsZj95g3Xu_zA1KGJTduyFvozxyAvnv5ZGvls_dhWyhc6QgcLM0YztLAbuBpIcl5C7GVwF5yE15CGNVz9naab-qOdwgfWiT-rTPNdj5lW5c7yG9_YR1bOYQ/w400-h266/Trump%20&%20Lee.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Sen. Mike Lee with his ventriloquist<br /></td></tr></tbody></table>You've probably read that Senator Mike Lee of Utah looks to be in trouble. Polls are showing him neck-and-neck with his Independent challenger, Evan McMullan. An article by A.B. Stoddard in <a href="https://morningshots.thebulwark.com/p/elon-musk-is-putins-and-chinas-useful" target="_blank">The Bulwark</a> explains how that came to be:</p><p style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;">Over the last six years, Donald Trump has ruined many Republican
political careers. Lee is now scrambling to avoid becoming another of
them. The two-term senator knows exactly why his campaign is in trouble
and what led to his humiliation on Fox News [i.e., when Lee almost begged Mitt Romney for his endorsement, which Romney has withheld].</p><p style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><strong>Lee isn’t in trouble because of (just) Democratic voters. His
re-election is teetering because of Republican voters who are disgusted
by his full embrace of Trump—including his attempts to help Trump
overturn the 2020 election. These machinations created space for former
CIA officer Evan McMullin to run as an independent after convincing the
Utah Democratic Party not to put anyone on the ballot this year.
McMullin has, improbably, energized a coalition of moderate Republicans,
unaffiliated voters, and Democrats behind his candidacy. Mitt Romney
has chosen not to endorse either candidate, saying they are both
friends.</strong> </p><p style="text-align: left;">Maybe we've been too hard on Romney. <br /></p>Bob Millerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08722931789115577841noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16096467.post-6382301705747320702022-10-17T15:44:00.000-05:002022-10-17T15:44:49.385-05:00The Kalinouski Regiment<p>Nearly every day the evidence mounts that Putin's invasion of Ukraine was a blunder of breathtaking proportions. Case in point: The Kalinouski Regiment.<br /></p><p>In the October issue of The Atlantic, <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2022/10/belarus-volunteers-fighting-ukraine-invasion/671242/" target="_blank">Anne Applebaum writes</a> about the Kalinouski Regiment, a military unit made up of Belarusian volunteers, formed in March to help defend Ukraine from the Russian invaders. <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/15/world/europe/belarus-ukraine-war-russia.html?searchResultPosition=1" target="_blank"><i>The New York Times</i></a> puts the current size of the growing regiment at nearly 500 troops. Members of the regiment oppose the Lukashenko regime in Belarus. They joined the Kalinouski Regiment to help Ukraine and receive NATO military training, with an eye to the long term goal of removing Lukashenko.<br /></p><p>Belarus was a component of the USSR until it declared its independence in 1994, after the communist giant fell apart. In its first and only free and fair election, Belarus elected Alexander Lukashenko president. Lukashenko immediately began closing down the pillars of democracy in the country: free speech, free press, opposition parties, and free and fair elections. Nevertheless, Lukashenko's control of the country has always been tenuous, and he has depended on Russia, and Putin in particular, to help suppress his opposition and keep him in power. Most recently, he received Russian assistance to quell demonstrations throughout the country following his "victory" in the country's fraudulent 2020 elections.<br /></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhM1jGGOcfkzdyj5ETGg3DRSTW7DsIES9K1O2XN-lc_XFJTzKZyY8B4XLO1JEGq9uJREETVajf3e0Goy_9twK-XgClKzVcqs-llCDb7QMUamVyuy5q-6XRxQWPsTMW2pX2QqBjCb_hlWpk67hiJTEUfHQXw_VfVIsArBWAWa4beNXasGoc8JQ/s1806/Belarus-thump-map.webp" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1644" data-original-width="1806" height="364" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhM1jGGOcfkzdyj5ETGg3DRSTW7DsIES9K1O2XN-lc_XFJTzKZyY8B4XLO1JEGq9uJREETVajf3e0Goy_9twK-XgClKzVcqs-llCDb7QMUamVyuy5q-6XRxQWPsTMW2pX2QqBjCb_hlWpk67hiJTEUfHQXw_VfVIsArBWAWa4beNXasGoc8JQ/w400-h364/Belarus-thump-map.webp" width="400" /> </a></td><td style="text-align: center;"> </td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Belarus <br /></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Belarus shares a 674 mile border with Ukraine on the south, and at its closest is less than 65 miles away from Kiev. The Russian attack on Kiev in February originated from Belarusian soil, though it did not include Belarusian soldiers. Lately Putin has been leaning on Lukashenko to commit huge numbers of troops to help rescue Russia's failing invasion, and Belarusian troops have been deployed in the last week to the Ukraine border, where they are reportedly organizing with Russian troops. </p><p>But, though Putin may demand it, you can be sure that sending Belarusian troops into Ukraine is the last thing Lukashenko wants. His hold on power is too tenuous. The absence of a large part of his army from the country, fighting in an increasingly unpopular war, will leave his regime exposed, and Russia is not in a good position to come to his aid, as it did in 2020. And, long-term, he certainly sees that Belarus is on Putin's to-do list as the Russian president goes about his reconstruction of the Russian Empire of Peter the Great. </p><p>The Kalinouski Regiment hopes to have something to say about that.<br /></p>Bob Millerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08722931789115577841noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16096467.post-86519673080711843212022-10-13T12:18:00.002-05:002022-10-13T22:50:50.255-05:00The Party of Lincoln 😢<p>Yesterday Arkansas Senator Tom Cotton (last seen running for his life from the January 6 insurrection he had urged on) and Florida Senator Rick Scott (best known for his leadership of Columbia Hospital Corporation while it defrauded Medicare and Medicaid, for which it was fined $1.7 billion) joined Herschel Walker (who helped Georgia beat Notre Dame in the 1981 Sugar Bowl) on the campaign trail.</p><p>They got their just desserts:</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><iframe allowfullscreen="" class="BLOG_video_class" height="305" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Y7icFnN_i5E" width="473" youtube-src-id="Y7icFnN_i5E"></iframe></div><br />Bob Millerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08722931789115577841noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16096467.post-28122062098604177212022-10-13T10:52:00.004-05:002022-10-13T12:24:32.200-05:00A Surprising Prediction<p>Retired General Ben Hodges was once the commanding general of United States Army Europe, so he brings a wealth of relevant background to this survey of the Ukraine battlefield, and its prospects for the next year.</p><p>We think his discussion (below) is worth the 12 minutes of your time. [Spoiler alert: He expects Ukraine will have recovered Crimea by Summer 2023.]</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><iframe allowfullscreen="" class="BLOG_video_class" height="303" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/g5WztvkeMLc" width="479" youtube-src-id="g5WztvkeMLc"></iframe></div><br /><p><br /></p>Bob Millerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08722931789115577841noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16096467.post-43792690749521432582022-10-09T12:24:00.000-05:002022-10-09T12:24:25.626-05:00Putin's Russian Empire is Slip-Sliding Away<p><i>The New York Times</i> has an important front-page article today, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/08/world/asia/russia-putin-soviet.html" target="_blank">A Distracted Russia is Losing Its Grip on Its Old Soviet Sphere</a>. Last week we were writing about how Russia's preoccupation with Ukraine was leaving the Central Asian nations up for grabs, and how China is moving in. You may fairly ask, "What has this got to do with me?" Today it doesn't. Tomorrow we may wish we hadn't been so myopic about the countries with funny names.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjw8O8iY25l1k7rQp0d1EjS7XGu6ddf-qed4fmX9fvq3aHAR2SCi84JzU4CvsNdRr5IBsQ4zSaew-x0P28nnDnaNdzKxko6BCjPKc7_lqy0gZEm9Q-_yqPzAKUNdwYxsncWWqeGlkK7LBukundMlJuPSSHW6nlgF5gowrcSck8-THK8fDN5AQ/s1200/Central-Asia-Map.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="891" data-original-width="1200" height="297" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjw8O8iY25l1k7rQp0d1EjS7XGu6ddf-qed4fmX9fvq3aHAR2SCi84JzU4CvsNdRr5IBsQ4zSaew-x0P28nnDnaNdzKxko6BCjPKc7_lqy0gZEm9Q-_yqPzAKUNdwYxsncWWqeGlkK7LBukundMlJuPSSHW6nlgF5gowrcSck8-THK8fDN5AQ/w400-h297/Central-Asia-Map.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><p>In case you don't have a subscription to the <i>Times</i>, here are some tantalizing morsels that might make you consider at least the online edition:</p><p style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"> With the Kremlin distracted by its flagging war more than 1,500 miles away in Ukraine, Russia's dominium (sic) over its old Soviet empire shows signs of unraveling. Moscow has lost its aura and its grip, creating a disorderly vacuum that previously obedient former Soviet satraps, as well as China, or moving to fill.</p><p class="css-at9mc1 evys1bk0" style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;">...Today, Armenia is
fuming. Its prime minister, Nikol Pashinyan, who has been a close ally,
appealed to Moscow in vain last month for help to halt renewed attacks
by Azerbaijan. Furious at Russia’s inaction, Armenia is now threatening
to leave Moscow’s military alliance, the Collective Security Treaty
Organization.</p><div class="css-53u6y8"><p class="css-at9mc1 evys1bk0" style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;">The Kazakh government
that Mr. Putin helped prop up in January is veering far from the
Kremlin’s script over Ukraine, and is looking to China for help in
securing its own territory, parts of which are inhabited largely by
ethnic Russians, and which Russian nationalists view as belonging to
Russia.</p><p class="css-at9mc1 evys1bk0" style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;">And here along the mountainous border between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan,
long-running quarrels between farmers over land, water and smuggled
contraband escalated last month into a full-scale conflict involving
tanks, helicopters and rockets, as the armies of the two countries
fought each other to a standstill. </p><p class="css-at9mc1 evys1bk0" style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;">...Moscow’s security alliance has long been touted by Mr. Putin as Russia’s
answer to NATO and an anchor of its role as the dominant (and often
domineering) force across vast expanses of the former Soviet Union. But
now the bloc is barely functioning. Five of its six members — Armenia,
Belarus, Russia, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan — have been involved in wars
this year, while the sixth, Kazakhstan, has seen violent internal
strife.</p><p class="css-at9mc1 evys1bk0" style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;">...Some
officials in [the Kyrgyzstan capital of] Bishkek wonder if Russia winked at the military action by
Tajikistan, a tightly controlled dictatorship ruled by the same leader
since 1994, even longer than Mr. Putin has been in control of the
Kremlin. Kyrgyzstan, by contrast, is considered the only Central Asian
country with a modicum of real democracy and a relatively free press.</p><p class="css-at9mc1 evys1bk0" style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;">The
view of Mr. Putin siding with Tajikistan — rather than being an
unbiased umpire between two members of his military alliance — gained
more ground this past week when the Kremlin declared that it was giving
the veteran Tajik dictator, Emomali Rahmon, a prestigious state award
for his contribution to “regional stability and security.”</p><aside aria-label="companion column" class="css-ew4tgv" style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"></aside><div style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><div class="css-8atqhb"></div></div><p class="css-at9mc1 evys1bk0" style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;">Kyrgyzstan’s
foreign ministry said the award, announced by Moscow “while the blood
of innocent victims has not yet cooled on Kyrgyz soil,” had caused
“bewilderment.”</p><p class="css-at9mc1 evys1bk0" style="text-align: left;">Read <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/08/world/asia/russia-putin-soviet.html" target="_blank">the whole article</a>. </p><p class="css-at9mc1 evys1bk0" style="text-align: left;">Putin is trying, step-by-step, to reconstitute the Russian Empire of Peter the Great. But his obsession with Ukraine is leading to neglect of the rest. He's a murderous tyrant, to be sure. But apparently he can't walk and chew gum.</p><p class="css-at9mc1 evys1bk0" style="text-align: left;"><br /></p><p class="css-at9mc1 evys1bk0"> </p></div>Bob Millerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08722931789115577841noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16096467.post-55736193445884679232022-10-06T16:14:00.001-05:002022-10-06T16:38:10.363-05:00The Useful Idiots<p style="text-align: left;">William Saletan at <a href="https://www.thebulwark.com/" target="_blank">The Bulwark</a> has been watching Fox "News" so we don't have to. Today he reports that while the daytime programming is presenting accurate information about the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the demimondaines of the Fox evening hours apparently aren't watching. It's too early to call them a fifth column, but .... <br /></p><p>Read Saletan's article <a href="https://www.thebulwark.com/fox-news-putin-propaganda-primetime/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email" target="_blank">here</a>.</p><p>A sample:</p><p>“Putin is making nuclear threats,” [Tucker Carlson] <a href="https://video.foxnews.com/v/6312722453112">noted</a>.
“Whatever the reason he is making them, the fact he is making them . . .
is enough for any responsible person to say, ‘Now we stop.’”</p><p>Really? We want to make it <i>that</i> easy for Putin? </p><p><a href="https://www.thebulwark.com/" target="_blank">The Bulwark</a>, by the way, is a web site founded by conservative Republicans (specifically, Sarah Longwell, Charlie Sykes and Bill Kristol) whose loyalty to facts and truth is greater than their loyalty to the Republican Party. Thus, <i>former</i> Republicans.<br /></p>Bob Millerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08722931789115577841noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16096467.post-42819948319096726432022-09-22T09:51:00.001-05:002022-09-22T09:55:22.919-05:00Make a New Plan, -stan<p>While our attention is focused on the war in Ukraine, other things are happening which may not be below the radar, but the significance of which might easily be missed.<br /></p><p>This interview with Scott Lucas, founder and editor of <a href="https://eaworldview.com/" target="_blank">EA Worldview</a> and a professor at the University of Birmingham, caught our attention. The larger point he makes is that China is opportunistic, and is as happy to cash in on Russia's failures as it would have been on Russian success. Case in point: Kazakhstan. The really interesting stuff starts at about 1:57 minutes into the video.<br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><iframe allowfullscreen="" class="BLOG_video_class" height="321" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/SVW2fSt1Kc8" width="386" youtube-src-id="SVW2fSt1Kc8"></iframe> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> Now, we may wonder why we (or China) should be interested in Kazakhstan. There was certainly a time when we could (and did) ignore Kazakhstan. But consider the map:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"> </div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhddRxYhS7UWtsKK8E9aPSuJQxAEEbLnmgIRD0eB1ct8vZgZF_JDn0rBN5WtWYg4Ki7f9LUd5PDI-gAMmTS_wXHuBnG6V-iTw3eyvPQL34uhtxKLYiMJR1HsME-qcU78hJ5bwXp8o4YJKKA-02YAsDjwqmgXzSU15WCdTia8ROBSzF3PR5MeA/s1232/Kazakhstan%20Context%20Map.jpg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="932" data-original-width="1232" height="303" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhddRxYhS7UWtsKK8E9aPSuJQxAEEbLnmgIRD0eB1ct8vZgZF_JDn0rBN5WtWYg4Ki7f9LUd5PDI-gAMmTS_wXHuBnG6V-iTw3eyvPQL34uhtxKLYiMJR1HsME-qcU78hJ5bwXp8o4YJKKA-02YAsDjwqmgXzSU15WCdTia8ROBSzF3PR5MeA/w400-h303/Kazakhstan%20Context%20Map.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><p></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p>It borders China. It borders Russia. It is on the Caspian Sea; so is Iran. Its western end is in <b>Europe</b>!</p><p>According to <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kazakhstan#Natural_resources" target="_blank">Wikipedia</a>:</p><p style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;">Kazakhstan has an abundant supply of accessible mineral and fossil fuel
resources. Development of petroleum, natural gas, and mineral
extractions has attracted most of the over $40 billion in foreign
investment in Kazakhstan since 1993 and accounts for some 57% of the
nation's industrial output (or approximately 13% of gross domestic
product). According to some estimates,<sup class="reference" id="cite_ref-Homestead_54-0"><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kazakhstan#cite_note-Homestead-54">[48]</a></sup> Kazakhstan has the second largest <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uranium" title="Uranium">uranium</a>, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chromium" title="Chromium">chromium</a>, lead, and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zinc" title="Zinc">zinc</a> reserves; the third largest <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manganese" title="Manganese">manganese</a>
reserves; the fifth largest copper reserves; and ranks in the top ten
for coal, iron, and gold. It is also an exporter of diamonds. Perhaps
most significant for economic development, Kazakhstan also has the 11th
largest proven reserves of both petroleum and natural gas.</p><p style="text-align: left;">All very boring. But the Chinese are paying attention.<br /> </p>Bob Millerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08722931789115577841noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16096467.post-45894555485110173192022-09-19T17:04:00.001-05:002022-09-19T17:04:56.763-05:00A Tale of Two Churches<p><br /></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjoKsgsBTEa9EZ08FTM4OxSL2ovYL_QqMIw25Vfd0nXrAcRgBd9XhzPFTeaY7C3Wz3cmw7lQv5Pz9lBdLc5SbbOdY3aVpv8RGZJowPEUSpoqpk6BKtlw8G8OghfdTvyhgYiU-EQ8kv84AUeGfoBg7UfE_kKUwZHiHkcp01AcvqfURFlBdBraA/s640/IMG_3614.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="480" data-original-width="640" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjoKsgsBTEa9EZ08FTM4OxSL2ovYL_QqMIw25Vfd0nXrAcRgBd9XhzPFTeaY7C3Wz3cmw7lQv5Pz9lBdLc5SbbOdY3aVpv8RGZJowPEUSpoqpk6BKtlw8G8OghfdTvyhgYiU-EQ8kv84AUeGfoBg7UfE_kKUwZHiHkcp01AcvqfURFlBdBraA/w400-h300/IMG_3614.JPG" title="St. John's Episcopal Church, Chicago" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">St. John's Episcopal Church, Chicago<br /></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQ0CbviN_Wuk3yZVWPvLmyOcOZ2nzRPnGW7xdpIMWUgNm9U3mAz8wKRSyWjtLWINywcfZNavUQxbO2bvGSNFGMfG1QRU3hn59mAcBqlRTkWoSDUIMjTP7ZXsYUASoicAaRGFoOLj1pXb9d3Y4pk_mdtIxyy6w9Ek35II6iw1M20GYoQDp2nA/s640/IMG_3618.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="480" data-original-width="640" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQ0CbviN_Wuk3yZVWPvLmyOcOZ2nzRPnGW7xdpIMWUgNm9U3mAz8wKRSyWjtLWINywcfZNavUQxbO2bvGSNFGMfG1QRU3hn59mAcBqlRTkWoSDUIMjTP7ZXsYUASoicAaRGFoOLj1pXb9d3Y4pk_mdtIxyy6w9Ek35II6iw1M20GYoQDp2nA/w400-h300/IMG_3618.JPG" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">St. Benedict Roman Catholic Church, Chicago</td></tr></tbody></table><p><br /></p>Bob Millerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08722931789115577841noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16096467.post-75367525467793911392022-09-12T17:06:00.004-05:002022-09-12T17:26:21.426-05:00Some Russians,, at Last, Are Coming to Their Senses<p>There's nothing I can add to the news reports of the Russian Army's collapse in the Kharkiv region, but maybe you haven't seen this, a panel discussion on Russian television that could be titled, "Where do we go from here?":<br /></p><p>https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1569070513909022720</p><p>You'll need to at least have a Twitter account to watch it, unfortunately. </p><p>Incidentally, found this video in <a href="https://www.thebulwark.com/ukraines-momentum-putins-fears/" target="_blank">an excellent article</a> in <a href="https://www.thebulwark.com/" target="_blank">The Bulwark</a>. If you're interested in the subject, I highly recommend it.<br /></p>Bob Millerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08722931789115577841noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16096467.post-82854566538828855332022-08-06T11:02:00.002-05:002022-08-06T13:23:59.514-05:00What Works in Kansas<p>Back in 2004, Thomas Frank's book, <i>What's the Matter with Kansas?</i>, was all the rage among liberals. One theme of the book was that Kansans tended to vote in ways that were not in their own best interests. The implication of the title was that it was their fault. Maybe it was.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjh8z7cudhyPlJG-HWWVYyrxjRpnyTAvE50OAaWDn0TBuZ_lYrmMW-CmlBZUgzPf6ia817VJpm3LXGcJuc-qte6Obj5OWd5oqxwcgqD22_wqtRI6i2oLdKvtMCQTICEsM06OhmD6c05RKMjcdMmeykWV1DpBS6n32ZtALjyBqYD5RG6_WFA0Q/s394/Whatsthematterwithkansas.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="394" data-original-width="253" height="229" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjh8z7cudhyPlJG-HWWVYyrxjRpnyTAvE50OAaWDn0TBuZ_lYrmMW-CmlBZUgzPf6ia817VJpm3LXGcJuc-qte6Obj5OWd5oqxwcgqD22_wqtRI6i2oLdKvtMCQTICEsM06OhmD6c05RKMjcdMmeykWV1DpBS6n32ZtALjyBqYD5RG6_WFA0Q/w147-h229/Whatsthematterwithkansas.jpg" width="147" /></a></div> So when Kansans recently voted overwhelmingly to block an amendment to the state constitution that would allow banning all abortions, it was a shock still reverberating around the talk shows.<p></p><p><a href="https://washingtonmonthly.com/2022/08/05/the-ads-that-won-the-kansas-abortion-referendum/" target="_blank">This article</a> from the Washington Monthly tells how the local campaigners against the amendment chose to speak to voters in the context of the voters' own value systems, rather than that of the bi-coastal progressives. It worked. The article has links to the television ads they ran, which are very instructive. If you do nothing else with this, at least watch the ads.<br /></p><p>After decades of scorning and neglecting "fly-over country", hopefully the Democratic Party can actually learn a lesson from this. It's very slow learning curve so far has resulted in the Supreme Court we have now. </p>Bob Millerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08722931789115577841noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16096467.post-81788831373038393672022-04-11T09:26:00.003-05:002022-04-11T09:26:39.679-05:00The Battle Ahead<p>"The battle for Donbas will remind you of the Second World War," according to Dmytro Kuleba, Ukraine's foreign minister, quoted in <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/9f21c96a-2528-4c58-8adf-f49e1c8712da?desktop=true&segmentId=7c8f09b9-9b61-4fbb-9430-9208a9e233c8#myft:notification:daily-email:content" target="_blank">Financial Times</a>.</p><p>Ukrainian troops are dug in with a network of trenches that is reminiscent of World War I. <br /></p><p>The NY Times reports:</p><p style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;">Analysts predict Russian troops, refocusing on the east after being thwarted in the capital, will carry out a major offensive stretching from Dnipro to Izium, a city almost 150 miles northeast [sic; it's NNW of Dnipro] where fighting has already been heavy, U.S. officials said Sunday. Satellite images showed hundreds of military vehicles moving through the town of Velykyi Burluk toward Izium on Friday.</p><p>This area is mostly flat, open land, and will not be conducive to the guerilla tactics that served the Ukrainians so well around Kiev. The sooner they get enormous supplies of heavy equipment, the better.<br /></p><p>Two maps that tell the story:</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhP3lZmq5IDvq5xaiRSYdNpSrUTCsBC3NPv3L1gu849ghXtYZQfhhD7vTNZpEfj40I13t5v1UOd8HJ4LC2N3yYfBUs6ey6W_VTysX2zjRUgOKyOXb62jRnu-HM7veN2erE3EmFqkmogOB8G6GTM1KtG9aacuuUFZtcydnEHp09aA_UK_mkoLQ/s1602/EasternUkraine4-10-22.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1602" data-original-width="1386" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhP3lZmq5IDvq5xaiRSYdNpSrUTCsBC3NPv3L1gu849ghXtYZQfhhD7vTNZpEfj40I13t5v1UOd8HJ4LC2N3yYfBUs6ey6W_VTysX2zjRUgOKyOXb62jRnu-HM7veN2erE3EmFqkmogOB8G6GTM1KtG9aacuuUFZtcydnEHp09aA_UK_mkoLQ/w346-h400/EasternUkraine4-10-22.jpg" width="346" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Source: Institute for the Study of War<br /></td></tr></tbody></table><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjusGMxWmUt_CLc9UPELx8WnJhuXL34UnCZ6whj5RgQe2p-y0wahHLT08w8-Q0rTDbk35dMzHoXvQYk7hPfn76wyrDckH8wViiKFsCyRaeHShWLjmDs-YMjfxsF9qdHjQ2368FHokqqQ51nBSQKuFn9aUx4E8rHQRRxV99Q1CR0_GBQCDHbvA/s1800/Donbas4-11-22.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1452" data-original-width="1800" height="323" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjusGMxWmUt_CLc9UPELx8WnJhuXL34UnCZ6whj5RgQe2p-y0wahHLT08w8-Q0rTDbk35dMzHoXvQYk7hPfn76wyrDckH8wViiKFsCyRaeHShWLjmDs-YMjfxsF9qdHjQ2368FHokqqQ51nBSQKuFn9aUx4E8rHQRRxV99Q1CR0_GBQCDHbvA/w400-h323/Donbas4-11-22.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Source: The New York Times<br /></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Click on the maps for a larger view.<br /></p>Bob Millerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08722931789115577841noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16096467.post-65832176867605251332022-04-09T10:06:00.004-05:002022-04-09T10:12:03.503-05:00The Russian Invasion<p>Here's something that caught my eye:</p><p>From the <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/c3c29382-0717-4a33-be1f-7f51e8bb314e?desktop=true&segmentId=7c8f09b9-9b61-4fbb-9430-9208a9e233c8#myft:notification:daily-email:content" target="_blank">Financial Times</a>:</p><p style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"> A difference of 3mm encapsulates the challenges the west faces as it works out how to supply the weapons that Ukraine needs to hold off, or even repel, Russian forces during the next phase of the war: the looming battle for the Donbas. </p><p style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;">The list of weapons that Ukraine wants includes more long-range artillery to target the Russian positions that have been shelling its cities during six weeks of heavy fighting. However, most Nato countries’ heavy artillery has a 155mm calibre while Ukraine, as part of its Soviet legacy, uses 152mm. </p><p style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"> “The Ukrainians are running out of 152mm ammunition. Where are they going to get it?” asked Chris Donnelly, an adviser to four former Nato secretaries-general on the Soviet and Russian military. “No one in the west uses it or makes it apart from the Serbs — and they’re on Russia’s side.” </p><p style="text-align: left;">Looking for more detailed accounts of the military action in Ukraine than you can find in the <i>New York Times</i> or <i>Washington Post</i>? The best I've found so far (and it's plenty for me) is <a href="https://www.criticalthreats.org/" target="_blank">Critical Threats</a>, a website of the Institute for the Study of War. <a href="https://www.criticalthreats.org/" target="_blank">Critical Threats</a> offers reliable reports and assessments of military activity in Ukraine. It is often used as a source by the Financial Times and the newspapers above.</p><p style="text-align: left;">The map below is from Critical Threats.</p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEimbZj6B2y5akMLzmnskm0apVF4yQAlCL_yDBGNODOT_tQ5aRuUVzJrBJRrrNJkdlVVrEhMRMy0cV5Pw4Y1GXUuGhoLUNuE2Rq3ogI2Ox4Fw5_0YtysugigK2V1p8SYIt0hE_Ebmlascm-y-VSzmGh2rMPDrUVR6_EBnOWtUwyS7NWw56gcnw/s1024/UkraineCoTApril82022-659x1024.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1024" data-original-width="659" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEimbZj6B2y5akMLzmnskm0apVF4yQAlCL_yDBGNODOT_tQ5aRuUVzJrBJRrrNJkdlVVrEhMRMy0cV5Pw4Y1GXUuGhoLUNuE2Rq3ogI2Ox4Fw5_0YtysugigK2V1p8SYIt0hE_Ebmlascm-y-VSzmGh2rMPDrUVR6_EBnOWtUwyS7NWw56gcnw/w411-h640/UkraineCoTApril82022-659x1024.png" width="411" /></a></div><br /> <br /><p></p><p style="text-align: left;"><br /></p>Bob Millerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08722931789115577841noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16096467.post-21788393865989001682022-04-08T14:09:00.002-05:002022-04-08T14:21:35.851-05:00Timidity?<p>Back on March 15 we fully expected MiG fighter planes to be delivered to Ukraine for their use in providing air cover. But despite an offer by Poland to furnish the planes, they have not been delivered – apparently from fear that <u>providing</u> the planes, rather than the complications of delivering them, would involve NATO in the fighting.</p><p>Which is something I don't really understand.</p><p>During World War II, America provided military planes to Great Britain while we were still a neutral country.</p><p>In fact, <a href="https://ru.usembassy.gov/world-war-ii-allies-u-s-lend-lease-to-the-soviet-union-1941-1945/" target="_blank">the United States <b>sent tanks to Russia</b></a> while we were still a neutral country.<br /></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><iframe allowfullscreen="" class="BLOG_video_class" height="302" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/wtSigplwQ6Y" width="480" youtube-src-id="wtSigplwQ6Y"></iframe></div><p></p><p>We should point this out as the planes and tanks cross the border into Ukraine.</p><p><br /></p>Bob Millerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08722931789115577841noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16096467.post-73503527568336550082022-03-21T14:00:00.001-05:002022-03-21T14:00:56.192-05:00Department of a Thousand Words<br/><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgdTGNR9LcIP1HpBUyYy5vutJvKzBHhgPevuoU91vjdrvKO0KGG7Ip6l28BPaQvFZRSCubO8-kXyTvZulEqxgTzYmsq89Gl02NumZpRazam6QGGeckGu5eSq3ZxJUk5rvbJAFUJaWjqGsVyXAiogh-hWu_J666VOUVThlHUhW91EGoCmesGQA/s1566/MotherhoodUkraine2022.jpg" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" height="320" data-original-height="1566" data-original-width="1198" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgdTGNR9LcIP1HpBUyYy5vutJvKzBHhgPevuoU91vjdrvKO0KGG7Ip6l28BPaQvFZRSCubO8-kXyTvZulEqxgTzYmsq89Gl02NumZpRazam6QGGeckGu5eSq3ZxJUk5rvbJAFUJaWjqGsVyXAiogh-hWu_J666VOUVThlHUhW91EGoCmesGQA/s320/MotherhoodUkraine2022.jpg"/></a></div>Bob Millerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08722931789115577841noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16096467.post-5365335396356396912022-03-20T12:56:00.000-05:002022-03-20T12:56:14.843-05:00Brainstorming Russian Reparations<p>I'd like to spend a little more time thinking about the proposal, discussed in my March 18 post, that we use Russia's money to rebuild Ukraine. The first mention I saw of this idea is in Robert E. Litan's <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/russia-can-be-made-to-pay-for-ukraine-damage-now/?utm_campaign=Brookings%20Brief&utm_medium=email&utm_content=207195270&utm_source=hs_email" target="_blank">article at the Brookings Institute website</a>. By Litan's reckoning, Western countries and Japan are holding about $350 billion of
Russia's foreign policy reserves; these reserves are currently "frozen"
by the sanctions placed on Russia. The fact that the reserves are
called "frozen" and not "seized" implies they will be "unfrozen" some
day – presumably when Russian troops are withdrawn from Ukraine.</p><p>This chart from <a href="https://www.statista.com/chart/26940/russian-central-bank-foreign-currency-and-gold-reserves-by-holder/" target="_blank">Statista</a> illustrates the distribution of the reserves. <br /></p><p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhe5gjtcLv4A2PWsYDCvscdy7ywlzVY_UDmpq8wqAfh2qsQVUdz3Ras-vMYZtZJhwo-LQdfcnLnOEDFETwuDmB9yGrAV-nenfm5qa1ddJDSxxscs4OslHH5r-NOohoyXRDD8PUllbt-65yZJgwtUyGrnDgn7KpquHHbuO-L0s124X9Z1fgsAA/s1200/RussianReserves.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1200" data-original-width="1200" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhe5gjtcLv4A2PWsYDCvscdy7ywlzVY_UDmpq8wqAfh2qsQVUdz3Ras-vMYZtZJhwo-LQdfcnLnOEDFETwuDmB9yGrAV-nenfm5qa1ddJDSxxscs4OslHH5r-NOohoyXRDD8PUllbt-65yZJgwtUyGrnDgn7KpquHHbuO-L0s124X9Z1fgsAA/s320/RussianReserves.jpeg" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Source: Statista.com<br /></td></tr></tbody></table> Litan wrote "the fact that many countries already have control over Russia's holdings of foreign currency means that, in effect, reparations for the Ukrainian invasion have been pre-funded by Russia itself." Moreover, "there is a basis in international law for enabling nations that hold these reserves to commit them to pay for damages."</p><p style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;">Russia has committed on a massive scale what under U.S. law is
considered an “intentional tort”: unprovoked violence, which requires at
a minimum that the aggressor pay damages for human suffering, deaths,
and property losses. In December 2005 the United Nations General
Assembly adopted a resolution affirming a variation of intentional tort
doctrine by providing a right to reparations to victims of human rights
abuses under international law.</p><div style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;">
</div><p style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;">The U.N. resolution is not self-enforcing, however. Instead, it
charges member states to establish “national programs for reparation and
other assistance to victims in the event that the parties liable for
the harm suffered are unable or unwilling to meet their obligations.”
It’s a safe bet that Russia won’t be willing to meet these obligations,
so other countries now holding Russian reserves can best enforce the
reparations principle by agreeing on a common plan.</p><p>Litan's Brookings article was originally published at <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-03-16/russia-can-be-made-to-pay-for-ukraine-damage-now" target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>.</p><p>There are several things to recommend this approach:</p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Turning all the frozen reserves back to Russia would mean that it gets to walk away from the damage it has done.</li></ul><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Russia's failure to help rebuild Ukraine means it would be entirely on the hands of, and dependent upon the generosity of, other countries.</li></ul><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>The reserves can be used <u>right</u> <u>now</u> to provide help to Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, Romania, and Moldova, the nations that have generously welcomed 3 million Ukrainian refugees. They simply can't afford to do this forever, however, and who better to pay for it than Russia?</li></ul><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Perhaps knowing that every school, hospital, and apartment building destroyed by a Russian bomb or missile will be replaced using Russia's own money might incentivize Putin to reconsider further aggressive activities and negotiate a withdrawal as soon as possible, to cut his loses.</li></ul><p>But there are arguments against confiscating and using Russian reserves in this way: </p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Instead of making Putin anxious to conclude his invasion, the action might frustrate, humiliate, and infuriate Putin to the point that he takes a spiteful action that requires a NATO response.</li></ul><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>There is that old law of unintended consequences. We must ask ourselves how unsettling actual confiscation, as opposed to "freezing," will be to the world financial system. It is beyond my ability to even imagine.<br /></li></ul><p>There may be a way to use the threat of reserves confiscation without actually taking the action. Let's say an American congressman introduces a resolution in the House that the reserves should be seized for refugees and reparations. A resolution is not a law, and the State Department and our allies would be under no obligation to do it. But a resolution might get Putin's attention, and encourage him to get ahead of things by working harder at negotiations.</p>Bob Millerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08722931789115577841noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16096467.post-84504879286533813812022-03-18T15:14:00.003-05:002022-03-18T15:14:40.496-05:00Alright, Who's Gonna Pay for This?<p>A common analysis of the Ukraine War is that Putin overestimated the ability of his military to cow the Ukrainians into submission, and as a consequence a humiliated and enraged Putin has decided that what he can't have, he'll raze to the ground. Then, when he is able, he will install a puppet government, declare victory, and withdraw most of his troops.</p><p>That's a pretty bleak scenario, to be sure. Maybe he realizes he will never be able to set up a sham government, and will withdraw once the country is reduced to cinders. No less bleak.<br /><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQfsBfbJ72MuRVp9n0MbiExab_Yq_A_FyJxuSUBU1rYK8oUkze-_H-CeL8F7NhPrR0Kby0CadogeQgUDeoN6iHszJUEDMj7CYRP3gW0tbr8ByBxcq23XyDmFmU5NVDVgW3N7qxoiEWqQEM6fCcloIlOapk7-8ZlKnaaGW7L7xtCVwM6JxoeA/s1566/mariupoltheater.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="Mariupol Theatre" border="0" data-original-height="881" data-original-width="1566" height="220" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQfsBfbJ72MuRVp9n0MbiExab_Yq_A_FyJxuSUBU1rYK8oUkze-_H-CeL8F7NhPrR0Kby0CadogeQgUDeoN6iHszJUEDMj7CYRP3gW0tbr8ByBxcq23XyDmFmU5NVDVgW3N7qxoiEWqQEM6fCcloIlOapk7-8ZlKnaaGW7L7xtCVwM6JxoeA/w320-h220/mariupoltheater.jpg" title="Mariupol Theatre" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Mariupol Theatre (Daily Beast)<br /></td></tr></tbody></table></p><p style="text-align: left;">At the Brookings Institute, economist Robert E. Litan <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/russia-can-be-made-to-pay-for-ukraine-damage-now/?utm_campaign=Brookings%20Brief&utm_medium=email&utm_content=207195270&utm_source=hs_email" target="_blank">suggests a way to help</a> Ukraine rebuild: use Russian money.</p><p style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;">According to the most recent data supplied by Russia’s central bank <a class="js-external-link" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20220224182023/http://cbr.ru/Collection/Collection/File/39685/2022-01_res_en.pdf." rel="noopener" target="_blank">as of June 30, 2021</a>,
Russia’s foreign currency reserves totaled $585 billion, though not all
of this would be accessible to pay for damages. That’s because Russia
holds a good portion of the total in gold at home (22%), a substantial
amount of renminbi in China (14%), and some in international
institutions (5%). Subtracting these amounts leaves about $350 billion
in “available reserves” for distribution—mostly held by France (12%),
Germany (10%), Japan (10%) and the U.S. (7%), with the rest scattered
among many other countries.</p><p style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;">In the past, reparations have been paid after hostilities ended by the
aggressor country—that was Germany in the first two world wars. Now, the
fact that many countries already have control over Russia’s holdings of
foreign currency means that, in effect, reparations for the Ukrainian
invasion have been pre-funded by Russia itself. This is an admittedly
unique circumstance, but there is a basis in international law for
enabling nations that hold these reserves to commit them to pay for
damages.</p><p style="text-align: left;">Okay, the first thing we need to say is, "Watch out for the law of unintended consequences." But it's an interesting idea, and <b>there's an added appeal</b>: If Team USA/Europe announces this plan beforehand, it could very well make Putin reconsider the wisdom of his scorched earth strategy. The less he destroys, and the sooner he gets out, the less he has to pay.</p><p style="text-align: left;"><br /></p>Bob Millerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08722931789115577841noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16096467.post-26596186948158296652022-03-15T20:00:00.027-05:002022-03-15T20:09:12.929-05:00When Will the Lesson Be Learned?<p>In our dining room there is a bust of Winston Churchill, a family heirloom. My father was an admirer of Churchill. My (French, maternal) grandmother was not. I'm not sure why, but my theory is that it was related to her feelings about <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attack_on_Mers-el-K%C3%A9bir" target="_blank">Mers-el-Kébir</a>.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi4TzziBV11vknIgKs4_3qmOHOsmDWI219KyKPV5vHAoQW8lq-2s2QbZnYg_XxdzFfVHU0HE9yGf6WsIC-bG3Fji0P38RKr-rnrC90kanvgYeropGLjooOC5SnhlWiC2tZnAXIu9rehF6qx6RAYbSWo55Ykiz-CWfsy6GNeRbYVmoqeVFz2Ew=s2016" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2016" data-original-width="1512" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi4TzziBV11vknIgKs4_3qmOHOsmDWI219KyKPV5vHAoQW8lq-2s2QbZnYg_XxdzFfVHU0HE9yGf6WsIC-bG3Fji0P38RKr-rnrC90kanvgYeropGLjooOC5SnhlWiC2tZnAXIu9rehF6qx6RAYbSWo55Ykiz-CWfsy6GNeRbYVmoqeVFz2Ew=s320" width="240" /></a></div>My grandmother lived with us for several months each year. When she was there, she and Dad engaged in a silent war. He would find the Churchill bust turned to face the back of the breakfront. He would turn it around to face the front again, only to find the next day that it had been turned around again. This went on for years, I think.<br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Winston was a very controversial figure before he led Great Britain's survival in World War II, and remained controversial in many quarters afterward. There is much to admire in the man, and much not to. He was a man.<br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">There is a danger in using the "lessons of history" to guide our current actions. Too often we learn the wrong lesson, or apply it poorly. For example, how many times did Neville Chamberlain and Munich get mentioned as justification for the war in Vietnam. [Okay, one or two readers might be too young to remember, so I'll tell you: they were mentioned <u>a</u> <u>lot</u>!] If you put the wrong grid on a problem, you're likely to come up with the wrong answer. We lost that war, yet today Americans who served in it take their families there on vacation trips. As Kurt Vonnegut would say, "So it goes."<br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">By the way, the movie, <i>Munich: The Edge of War</i>, does a fine job of telling the story from Chamberlain's point of view; a point of view that was shared by the British public (dramatic pause here) until it wasn't. <i>Munich: The Edge of War</i> is available on Netflix.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">So back to Churchill.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Last week I mentioned <i>Darkest Hour</i>, also available on Netflix, a movie about the critical month of May 1940, when Churchill became Prime Minister. The British mood had changed from Hitler avoidance to Hitler confrontation. Still, Chamberlain and Lord Halifax counseled negotiation.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Here's a climactic scene from the movie (2 minutes): <br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><iframe allowfullscreen="" class="BLOG_video_class" height="304" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/q7iJJq9JCvQ" width="396" youtube-src-id="q7iJJq9JCvQ"></iframe> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">I remembered this scene when reading Fareed Zakaria's March 10 <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/03/10/why-the-west-cant-let-putin-win-in-ukraine/" target="_blank">column in the Washington Post</a>, which concluded:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><p class="font-copy font--article-body gray-darkest ma-0 pb-md" data-el="text" data-qa="drop-cap-letter">The
greatest strategic opportunity lies with Europe, which could use this
challenge to stop being the passive international actor it has been for
decades. We now see signs that the Europeans are ready to end the era of
free security by raising defense spending and securing NATO’s eastern
border. Germany’s remarkable turnaround is a start. If Europe becomes a
strategic player on the world stage, that could be the biggest
geopolitical shift to emerge from this war. A United States joined by a
focused and unified Europe would be a super-alliance in support of
liberal values.</p></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><div><p class="font-copy font--article-body gray-darkest ma-0 pb-md" data-el="text" data-qa="drop-cap-letter">But
for the West to become newly united and powerful, there is one
essential condition: It must succeed in Ukraine. <b>That is why the urgent
necessity of the moment is to do what it takes — bearing costs and risks
— to ensure that Putin does not prevail.</b></p></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><div><p class="font-copy font--article-body gray-darkest ma-0 pb-md" data-el="text" data-qa="drop-cap-letter" style="text-align: left;">The emphasis is mine. <br /></p><p class="font-copy font--article-body gray-darkest ma-0 pb-md" data-el="text" data-qa="drop-cap-letter" style="text-align: left;"><b> <br /></b></p></div></div>Bob Millerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08722931789115577841noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16096467.post-33756201617295847422022-03-14T22:18:00.000-05:002022-03-14T22:18:48.188-05:00How Does This End?<p>I don't know why, because I haven't a <a href="https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/butterfly%20effect" target="_blank">butterfly's chance</a> of changing anything, but I've been consumed this past week with trying to understand the different ways the Russian invasion of Ukraine could pan out. Since I am not an original thinker, this has required me to search out and read articles from places I don't usually go.</p><p>I would generalize that most articles see three possible outcomes: complete Ukraine victory, complete Putin victory, or negotiation. But I think there's more subtlety than that allows for, so I read on.<br /></p><p>In one one of those places I don't usually go, the <a href="https://www.ft.com/" target="_blank">Financial Times</a>, I found <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/e2663cb2-d1ad-4c67-bbbf-dda0330da075" target="_blank">this article</a> by "Henry Foy in Brussels and Demetri Sevastopulo in Washington": <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/e2663cb2-d1ad-4c67-bbbf-dda0330da075" target="_blank">Endgame in Ukraine: how could the war play out?</a> Foy and Sevastolpulo say "western capitals are discussing a range of scenarios for how the conflict could progress," and offer five of the possibilities.</p><p>They are:</p><p>• Russians win </p><p style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;">And probably continue into Moldova<br /></p><p>• Russians mostly win, but Zelensky and Ukraine survive</p><p>• Russians retreat, Putin removed</p><p>• Negotiated settlement</p><p style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;">Russia probably gets the east and southeast parts of Ukraine, connecting Crimea to the Motherland</p><p>• Broader NATO-Russia war</p><p>to all of which I would add:</p><p>• Armageddon. Mother Earth gets to start over.</p><p>The <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/" target="_blank">New York Times</a> <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/13/us/politics/russia-ukraine-us-endgame.html" target="_blank">reported</a> today that: </p><p style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;">In interviews with senior American and European officials, there is a consensus on one point: Just as the last two weeks revealed that Russia's vaunted military faltered in it's invasion plan, the next two or three may reveal whether Ukraine can survive as a state, and negotiate an end to the war.</p><p style="text-align: left;">Admiral James Stavridis, who retired from service as supreme allied commander for Europe, believes "the most probable endgame, sadly, is a partition of Ukraine."</p><p style="text-align: left;">If you'd like to dig even deeper into this, I recommend spending an hour with this interview with Ian Bremmer, president of the <a href="https://www.eurasiagroup.net/in-the-news" target="_blank">Eurasia Group</a>, a respected foreign policy "think tank".</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><iframe allowfullscreen="" class="BLOG_video_class" height="321" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/k0Fx6igxRv8" width="481" youtube-src-id="k0Fx6igxRv8"></iframe></div><p></p><p>Among the things he sees:</p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>The decoupling of Europe and the U.S. with Russia is permanent.</li><li>A lot of companies that have left Russia will not return while Putin is in power, regardless of a negotiated peace.</li><li>Decisions by European nations to increase defense spending will be permanent.</li><li>Europe will "unwind" its energy dependence on Russia.</li><li>Russia will be a Chinese supplicant, economically, financially, and technologically.</li><li>This has improved the UK/Europe relationship.</li><li>Kyiv will fall in the next couple of weeks.</li><li>The Chinese ambassador to Russia recently held a meeting with top Chinese investors in Russia, and said this is a unique opportunity: the West is leaving Russia. We can buy it for a song.</li><li>A lot of the world is not with NATO on the sanctions.</li><li>The Chinese media are "relentlessly" pro-Putin; Chinese media are embedded with Russian troops in Ukraine.<br /></li></ul>Bob Millerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08722931789115577841noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16096467.post-58742596762899759482022-03-12T20:08:00.001-06:002022-03-12T21:16:07.106-06:00The Law of Unintended Consequences<p>In economics, the law of unintended consequences holds that economic actions may have unexpected outcomes. It has been my experience it's a rule that holds true for anything we do, and in the field of international relations it's a rule that translates as "Think before you jump." Think Iraq, as if you needed that prompt. </p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjCjkCrSjCdzGxLVfouxoMb7eRUrPboqb5ARLzY4iSGidLs6OiA2j9uc8mOd1FkVgAJy128KuJzvaw1XdEkj3v1raV7Iqd9CtGFHKEmVN4vqC1LEVhJKpw1SbDHtYXtidZi43SG7NXqzG3Ht_6bMAOeP3gPPgSvHP6QfabOdQcj3FkbRyIumw=s2072" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2072" data-original-width="1558" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjCjkCrSjCdzGxLVfouxoMb7eRUrPboqb5ARLzY4iSGidLs6OiA2j9uc8mOd1FkVgAJy128KuJzvaw1XdEkj3v1raV7Iqd9CtGFHKEmVN4vqC1LEVhJKpw1SbDHtYXtidZi43SG7NXqzG3Ht_6bMAOeP3gPPgSvHP6QfabOdQcj3FkbRyIumw=w242-h320" width="242" /></a></div><p></p><p></p>Over at <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/" target="_blank">The Atlantic</a> magazine, <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/archive/2022/03/russia-economic-sanctions-wheat-oil/627004/">Derek Thompson does some thinking</a> about what are likely to be some <u>unintended</u> consequences of the massive economic sanctions levied on Russia, governmentally and commercially.<p></p><p style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;">The immediate consequences are already breathtaking. On both sides of
this new iron curtain, commodity prices are skyrocketing and economic
indicators are falling. Oil is at all-time highs, and the Nasdaq is in
bear territory. Nickel prices went vertical, and the ruble crashed by 50
percent. Wholesale energy prices in Europe have blown past historic
records, and a European recession looks almost certain. Yesterday, the
economist Mark Zandi put the odds of a U.S. recession this year at
“one-in-three.”</p><p style="text-align: left;">Yikes!</p><p style="text-align: left;">But Thompson looks into his crystal ball and sees <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/archive/2022/03/russia-economic-sanctions-wheat-oil/627004/">three big things</a> that might be on the horizon:</p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>The Green Energy Revolution Goes into Warp Speed.</li><li>A New Chinese Empire.</li><li>A Global Food Fight. </li></ul><p>To which we will add a fourth:</p><p>China, like Russia, was probably shocked to see how western financial institutions were able to collapse a large country's financial system in a world where the dollar is the <i>de facto</i> international currency.</p><p>In his book, <a href="https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/the-world-richard-haass/1133313969?ean=9780399562419" target="_blank">The World: A Brief Introduction</a>, Richard Haass wrote (in 2020):</p><p style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;">As other econmies grow and become more open, they may be both willing and able to take on the role of a reserve currency. China obviously comes to mind here.... <br /></p><p style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;">...[T]here is the increasing U.S. propensity to "weaponize" international financial transactions to sanction select governments and individuals, a practice that could well hasten a move to dollar alternatives.</p><p style="text-align: left;">China has certainly looked at this in the past, more as a financial powerplay than anything else. They're probably looking at it as a security issue now.</p><p style="text-align: left;">We heard one commentator recently opine that, as a result of the world
reaction to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, invading Taiwan has moved from
second to seventh place on China's to-do list. Although we cannot
dismiss the possibility that China may decide to take advantage of the
uncertain state of things to launch such an attack, we think the
demotion is correct. <br /></p><p style="text-align: left;">Be sure to read <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/archive/2022/03/russia-economic-sanctions-wheat-oil/627004/" target="_blank">Derek Thompson's article</a>, then do your own thinking about it. It's alternately fun and terrifying. <br /></p>Bob Millerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08722931789115577841noreply@blogger.com0